DAH SING: It is expected that the Hong Kong economy will grow by 2.4% this year, and the Hang Seng Index is hopeful to challenge 25,000 points in the second half of the year.

Recently, Dah Sing released its economic and market outlook for the second half of this year, expecting that although the trade tensions between China and the US have eased slightly, the future still remains uncertain and will continue to pose challenges for Hong Kong's external trade performance. The bank predicts a 2.4% growth in Hong Kong's economy this year, with the Hang Seng Index expected to challenge the 25,000-point level in the second half of the year. The Group's Chief Economist and Strategist, Wen Jiawei, stated that the valuation of Hong Kong stocks has returned to a more reasonable level. With the uncertain outlook of China-US trade relations, Hong Kong stocks may continue to fluctuate, while the market continues to monitor the effectiveness of mainland China's economic stimulus measures. The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge the 25,000-point level in the second half of the year, with support expected around 20,800 points. The prospects for high dividend yield, domestic consumption, and the innovation and technology sectors may be relatively positive. He also mentioned that short-term export growth in mainland China is expected to be maintained, mainly because some companies have shifted their exports to regions such as ASEAN to offset the impact of the decline in exports to the US. With the relaxation of monetary policy in mainland China and the central government's commitment to implementing a more proactive fiscal policy to stimulate domestic demand, the economy of mainland China is expected to grow by 4.4% this year. Wen Jiawei also noted that Hong Kong is expected to benefit from the temporary reduction of tariffs by both China and the US, with the economy expected to grow by 2.4% this year. Additionally, the uncertain pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year may affect the outlook for the Hong Kong property market, coupled with the continued tourism deficit, which may continue to constrain the local consumption market in Hong Kong. However, he added that the completion of large sports venues in Hong Kong and the hosting of various large-scale events may help drive some retail consumption activities, along with the recent rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, which may boost consumer sentiment in the short term. He also stated that mortgage rates in Hong Kong have significantly fallen from high levels, while rental yields have gradually increased, helping to alleviate downward pressure on Hong Kong property prices. However, with ample potential supply of new residential properties and the uncertain factors brought by the trade tensions, it is predicted that Hong Kong property prices may fall by around 5% in the whole of 2025.