Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) "RoboTaxi" to be released next week! Bulls and bears debate: Bulls see key progress, bears question scalability path.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) stock is at a crucial crossroads, can the upcoming RoboTaxi release next week restore investor confidence? According to wind trading platform news, Barclays' latest analysis shows that investors are cautious about Tesla, Inc.'s RoboTaxi release event scheduled for June 12th. The event is expected to showcase vehicles without safety drivers, but with limited initial scale - only about 10 vehicles operating within a geofenced area and relying on remote operations. The vehicles are expected to operate in a conservative mode, avoiding "risk" roads. Barclays pointed out that although such events are usually seen as an opportunity to "sell the news," the bigger significance of this release event is to solidify the RoboTaxi/AV (automated driving) narrative, which has always been the core DRIVE of Tesla, Inc. stock. The report also stated that despite impressive progress in the field of autonomous driving, Tesla, Inc. still faces challenges in catching up with and surpassing industry leader Waymo. Bulls focus on Tesla, Inc.'s rapid iteration of technology and key moats in data and computing, while bears question the path to scalability, such as infrastructure/relationships with local authorities, where Tesla, Inc. lacks core competitiveness, while also questioning data quality. At the same time, the fundamentals continue to deteriorate, with the report stating that sales are expected to decline in 2025, profit margins are under pressure, and earnings per share expectations have dropped from $3.20 at the end of last year to less than $2.00 currently. For investors, the key to understanding Tesla, Inc.'s valuation lies in balancing the AV/AI vision with weak fundamentals, and whether the company's capital allocation can support future growth. Controversy surrounds the path to expanding AV More important than the June 12th release event is Tesla, Inc.'s path to expanding autonomous driving. Barclays believes that despite rapid technological progress, Tesla, Inc. still faces significant challenges in fully unlocking autonomous driving and building infrastructure, making it a daunting task to catch up or surpass Waymo. Musk has set an aggressive plan for expanding AV: Start with 10 RoboTaxis, gradually increase to 1,000 within a few months Start operations from Austin, with plans to expand to San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Antonio By the end of next year, the U.S. could have "possibly hundreds of thousands, or even over a million (unsupervised fully automated driving) Tesla, Inc.". However, its competitor, Alphabet Inc. Class C's Waymo, currently has a significant lead: Offering 250,000 paid driverless rides per week Already offering services in San Francisco, Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin (through Uber cooperation) Testing in several cities such as Boston and Nashville Accumulated over 50 million miles of driverless driving and 10 million paid rides Barclays pointed out that Tesla, Inc. faces major challenges in the expansion process: Handling edge cases/extreme situations Local parameter adjustments Infrastructure construction and regulatory approval Bulls see Tesla, Inc. as having unique advantages: Rapid iteration and improvement: Tesla, Inc. can quickly enhance its technological capabilities, with the products currently seen as just the basic version Data and computing advantages: With a fleet of 5 million vehicles equipped with FSD hardware and software and 100,000 GPUs, Tesla, Inc. has formed an irreplicable data/computing advantage Infinite market space: The U.S. drives over 3 trillion miles each year, even if Tesla, Inc. only captures a small portion, it is a huge revenue opportunity More efficient scaling paths than Waymo: Tesla, Inc.'s low-cost approach is a key advantage, Musk believes that Tesla, Inc. vehicle costs are only 20%-25% of Waymo's Bearish views, on the other hand, see the scaling process as difficult, emphasizing Tesla, Inc.'s lack of core capabilities in infrastructure management and relationships with local governments, and questioning data quality: Limited data richness: Even with 9 cameras equipped on each vehicle, the data may still not be as rich compared to competitors Sensor placement and protection issues: Sensor placement (such as inside the B pillars) may partially limit the vehicle's capabilities, weather protection is also a challenge In addition, the U.S. autonomous driving race is not limited to Tesla, Inc. and Waymo, companies like Rivian, Mobileye, and Wayve are also vying for market share, each providing different versions of end-to-end models and AI applications. Fundamentals have clearly deteriorated, but does it matter? Surprisingly, despite deteriorating fundamentals, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price remains strong. Specific points of decline include: Expected sales to decline year-on-year by 2025, with a 13% drop in first-quarter sales European market sales down about 40% year-to-date, Chinese market sales down about 7% Profitability under pressure, energy business margins affected by tariffs New issues with rare earth magnet supply shortages could pose additional challenges Barclays pointed out that the weakness in the automotive business should not be overlooked, as it is the source of funds driving the efforts in autonomous driving/artificial intelligence. Tesla, Inc.'s free cash flow has decreased from $7.6 billion in 2022 to $3.6 billion in 2024, with a forecast of $3.0 billion in 2025. One possible option is to issue more shares at low capital costs, which may help fund investments in autonomous driving/artificial intelligence. Barclays believes that the RoboTaxi release event may not meet expectations, the issue of weak fundamentals has not been fully addressed, but in the long run, the market's perception of Tesla, Inc.'s value in autonomous driving/AI will not change. This article is reproduced from "Wind Trading Platform"; GMTEight editor: Liu Xuan."Je vais la bibliothque pour tudier." "I am going to the library to study."