Regarding US stocks, US bonds, and the US dollar, these are the 16 most closely watched charts by Goldman Sachs.

Amid inflation pressures, concerns about debt sustainability, and the dominance of technology stocks, Goldman Sachs' head of hedge fund business, Tony Pasquariello, shared 16 charts revealing the current market state: The risk of inflation rebound has been absorbed by the market in advance, long-term interest rates are high, the US dollar and US bonds are clearly diverging, the dominance of technology giants in profit growth, and the explosive performance of sectors such as nuclear energy and defense, create a "challenging, unbalanced but full of opportunities" investment environment. The market has absorbed the inflation rebound in advance Although the recent inflation trend is encouraging, Goldman Sachs predicts that tariff implementation will cause the core PCE to rise from the current 2.5% to 3.6% by the end of the year. However, the market seems to view this as a one-time event. The 5-year forward inflation breakeven point has remained in a stable range since spring 2022, indicating limited market concerns about long-term inflation recovery. Debt sustainability remains a concern Most US nominal interest rate curves have remained in a similar range over the past few years, but long-term rates remain a focus. Although the US 30-year rate has eased in recent weeks, Goldman Sachs believes that the market may continue to remain highly vigilant in each long-term bond auction cycle. Clear divergence between the US dollar and US bonds One core challenge facing the US dollar is that, in a series of valuation models, it remains relatively expensive. This may explain why there has been a divergence between the US 30-year real rate and the US dollar trend. Complex prospects for the real estate sector US real estate construction stocks present a perplexing picture. On one hand, long-term rate risks and technical softness in supply and demand in the US housing market pose a threat to these stocks; on the other hand, despite historical volatility and astonishing declines, the resilience and complexity of the sector are still impressive, showing the long-term bull market trend. Defense and nuclear energy stocks surge Global defense stocks have performed particularly well, with Goldman Sachs' South Korean defense stock basket rising 127% so far this year, while European and Japanese defense stocks have also shown strong performance. At the same time, a basket of 20 global stocks focused on uranium/nuclear power themes has also shown a remarkable upward trend. Technology giants dominate profit growth Global technology companies show outstanding profit growth compared to non-tech companies. In particular, the Mag7 (seven largest US tech giants) show more prominent profit growth compared to the other 493 companies. Technology giants have seen significant changes in capital expenditure following the emergence of ChatGPT, and the market consensus expects this growth to continue. The gap between US AI leaders and laggards continues to widen, as one Goldman Sachs executive said, AI deployment and harvesting seems to follow a trajectory of "slow, slow, slow, then suddenly accelerate." Market pricing: Share buyback power and systemic flows Despite a significant increase in new issuance activity recently, the reason behind it is that companies are engaging in large-scale share buybacks. The amount of stock index futures held by the global systemic trading community is at a moderate level (5 out of 10), indicating that speculative positions no longer provide strong support as they did six weeks ago, but have not yet become resistance. May witnessed the largest ever net global stock buying (June slowed but still skewed towards net buying), indicating that the initial wave of hedge funds taking on risk has passed, but may still extend further. Value storage tools perform well In terms of total return and Sharpe ratio since the beginning of the year, value storage tools (gold, bitcoin) have performed well. US high-yield bonds offer a surprising Sharpe ratio (and a high level of diversification). It is worth noting that the performance of the US stock market lags behind its global peers (developed and emerging markets), and US technology stocks have unexpectedly shown slow performance since the beginning of the year.