S&P 500 returns above the 200-day moving average, is the bull market in U.S. stocks back?

On Monday, the US stock market saw a strong rebound, with the S&P 500 index surging by 3.3% to close at 5844.19 points, successfully breaking through the key technical level of the 200-day moving average. This is the first time in over 30 trading days that the index has reached this long-term trend indicator. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded as the dividing line between bull and bear markets in technical analysis. Generally, when an index stays below the 200-day moving average for a long time, it indicates a weak market trend, weakened investor confidence, and a potential for further downward risk in the future. However, according to data from SentimenTrader's senior analyst Jason Goepfert, history is not always so pessimistic. Looking at statistics since 1929, whenever the S&P 500 index fell from a three-year high and lingered below the 200-day moving average for more than 30 trading days, the performance afterwards often turned out to be good. The median increase in the S&P 500 over the next three months was 4.1%, and the median return over the next 12 months was a double-digit increase. Of course, there have been exceptions with significant losses, such as during the bursting of the dot-com bubble in 2000 and the financial crisis in 2008, where the S&P 500 recorded double-digit annual declines under the aforementioned technical conditions. But Goepfert pointed out that most of the time, such downturns are "temporary", and the market tends to gradually stabilize and rebound. He believes that it is not possible to conclude that the market will definitely enter a bear market based solely on technical indicators. "The most widely tracked index in the world not temporarily reaching its most observed technical indicator does not necessarily mean we will collapse." Goepfert further stated that if the market falls by another 3% to 5%, it would be more likely to be "a problem". The direct catalyst for this rebound was the announcement by China and the US to suspend some tariffs for 90 days, seeking a "cooling-off period" in their trade friction. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1160 points, a 2.8% increase; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 4.4%, officially moving out of the "bear market territory"; the S&P 500 index broke through the 200-day moving average, signaling a strengthening market technical picture. However, there are still disagreements in the market regarding whether this uptrend is sustainable. Callie Cox, Chief Market Strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management, stated: "The 200-day moving average has been a 'watershed' in past market recoveries. If we can hold this level, the market may have a chance to reach new highs. Otherwise, this is just an emotionally driven short-term rebound." She also reminded investors not to overlook the fundamentals: "Economic recessions often bring about long-term and destructive declines, stemming from shrinking corporate profits and household incomes. While we have not fully entered this stage yet, this possibility cannot be ruled out."