China and the United States temporarily suspend the imposition of tariffs for 90 days, freight volume surges again, and companies start a "freight rush".

With the temporary easing of trade tensions between China and the U.S., the 90-day tariff suspension has kicked off, and cross-Pacific freight is experiencing a new surge. Companies are racing against time to get their goods to the other side before the possibility of tariffs being raised again, similar to the "shipping rush" seen in the first quarter of this year. According to the agreement, starting from April 2nd, the U.S. government will lower the average tariff on Chinese products to 30%, while China will reduce the average tariff on U.S. products to 10%. Although the two sides have not completely resolved their trade dispute, this temporary easing measure has sparked a surge in the stock market and a drop in safe-haven assets. On Monday, the three major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq Composite Index surging 4.4%. At the same time, prices of safe-haven assets like gold plummeted, with gold futures falling more than 3%. According to Bloomberg data, as of this Monday, the number of cargo ships sailing from China to the U.S. has increased from 41 on April 26th to 51, showing signs of warming up. There was a peak in freight surges in March this year, but it quickly dropped under the backdrop of high tariffs being imposed. Previously, due to the U.S. government's announcement on April 2nd of implementing so-called "reciprocal tariffs," tariff barriers between China and the U.S. had soared to historical highs, with the U.S. imposing tariffs as high as 145% on some Chinese goods; China had imposed tariffs as high as 125% on U.S. products. This measure almost approached the level of "trade embargo," putting immense pressure on global supply chains. However, at the end of April, China announced a temporary suspension of additional tariffs on some U.S. goods, and the U.S. exempted Chinese smartphones and other consumer electronics, which became a key turning point for the rebound in freight volume. Tracy Chen, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management, analyzed, "Businesses are uncertain whether tariffs will be raised again after 90 days, so they will try to complete double stocking during this window." This rush of shipping will bring a new wave of freight peaks to ports on the U.S. West Coast, especially major ports in California such as Los Angeles, Long Beach, and Oakland. Chairman of the Pacific Merchant Shipping Association, Mike Jacob, said, "When we see bookings and cargo volumes drop significantly for a month and a half, pent-up demand often rushes back into the market like a tide." However, whether this rebound can quickly port throughput capacity depends on various factors, including the scheduling and distribution of cargo ships and containers; the availability of storage space; and companies' inventory strategies in the current tariff environment. Jacob pointed out that some ships originally intended for the California route have been redirected to Europe, Southeast Asia, or Latin America, posing challenges in capacity returning. He admitted, "We know the freight rush will come back, but we don't know the scale, speed, or impact... the only thing we're certain of is that it will be a chaotic shock." Although this tariff suspension order will expire on August 10th, market analysts believe that the current easing situation may create conditions for reaching a more lasting trade agreement in the future. Economist Grace Zwemmer from the Oxford Economics Institute pointed out in a client report on Monday, "This will help reduce the risk of supply chain disruptions before the back-to-school season and the holiday sales peak." She believes that the temporary tariff suspension increases the likelihood of reaching a long-term agreement.