Overnight US stocks | Three major indexes rose sharply, with the China Golden Dragon Index increasing by 5.4%.

On Monday, the three major indexes rose sharply as China and the United States agreed to temporarily and significantly reduce tariffs after weekend negotiations, increasing market hopes of easing the trade war situation and avoiding an economic recession. This week, the market is focusing on inflation data such as CPI and PPI. [US stocks] At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1160.72 points, or 2.81%, to 42410.10 points; the Nasdaq rose 779.43 points, or 4.35%, to 18708.34 points; the S&P 500 rose 184.28 points, or 3.26%, to 5844.19 points. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) rose 5.4%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) rose 6.7%, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) rose 6.3%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index rose 5.4%, Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) rose nearly 6%, GDS Holdings Ltd. Sponsored ADR Class A (GDS.US) rose 14%. [European stocks] The Germany DAX30 index rose 73.99 points, or 0.31%, to 23563.43 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose 52.53 points, or 0.61%, to 8607.33 points; the France CAC40 index rose 106.35 points, or 1.37%, to 7850.10 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 83.71 points, or 1.58%, to 5393.45 points; the Spain IBEX35 index rose 116.34 points, or 0.86%, to 13659.44 points; the Italy FTSE MIB index rose 562.01 points, or 1.43%, to 39932.00 points. [Asia-Pacific stock market] The Nikkei 225 index rose by 0.38%, the South Korea KOSPI index rose by more than 1%, and the Indonesia Composite Index rose slightly. [Foreign Exchange] The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, rose by 1.45% to 101.788 in the foreign exchange market. At the end of the New York foreign exchange market, 1 Euro exchanged for 1.1089 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.1259 US dollars; 1 British Pound exchanged for 1.3180 US dollars, lower than the previous trading day's 1.3315 US dollars. 1 US dollar exchanged for 148.34 Japanese Yen, higher than the previous trading day's 145.27 Japanese Yen; 1 US dollar exchanged for 0.8457 Swiss Franc, higher than the previous trading day's 0.8311 Swiss Franc; 1 US dollar exchanged for 1.3994 Canadian Dollar, higher than the previous trading day's 1.3930 Canadian Dollar; 1 US dollar exchanged for 9.8166 Swedish Krona, higher than the previous trading day's 9.7062 Swedish Krona. [Cryptocurrency] Bitcoin fell by more than 1% to 102540.4 US dollars; Ethereum fell by more than 1.2% to 2481.43 US dollars. [Metal] Spot gold fell by 2.69% to 3235.37 US dollars per ounce, remaining in a downward trend throughout the day, shaking at a low level after 15:00 Beijing time, refreshing a daily low of 3207.86 US dollars at 18:56, once again exploring below 3200 US dollars since May 1. COMEX gold futures fell by 2.76% to 3240.10 US dollars per ounce, fluctuating around the 3280 US dollar level after the Asia-Pacific market opened with a "gap lower", experiencing a second wave of decline around 15:00, refreshing a daily low of 3211.20 US dollars at 18:56. [Crude Oil] As of the close on the 12th, the price of light crude oil futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 93 cents to 61.95 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.52%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for July delivery on the London futures exchange rose by 1.05 US dollars to 64.96 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.64%. [Macro News] The New York Fed raised second-quarter GDP growth expectations to 2.42%. The latest real-time forecast by the New York Fed for the second quarter GDP has increased to 2.42%, up from 2.34% last week. This positive news has provided a favorable environment for major stock ETFs to regain lost ground. The forecast model (which includes retail sales, industrial production, and labor market indicators) was revised upward due to positive trade data but still below the peak of 2.72% in April. This upward revision indicates that despite mixed signals in other areas, the US economy continues to maintain growth momentum. Analysts say that improved US GDP prospects, combined with the rebound in US stocks, suggest that investor confidence in avoiding an economic slowdown is strengthening and may continue to support stock market gains. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. delays Fed rate cut expectations until the end of the year, reduces US recession likelihood. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has adjusted its timing for the next Fed rate cut to December (previously expected in July). The bank's analysts stated, "Given developments and significantly looser financial conditions last month, we have raised our annual economic growth rate forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 in the US to 1%, and reduced the likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months to 35%. At the same time, we have lowered our expectations for the inflation path of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE), expecting it to peak at 3.6% (previously 3.8%)." Fed survey: Demand for credit card loans weakened in the first quarter, while auto loans remained stable. The Federal Reserve released the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) report for April. Regarding business loans in the first quarter, respondents to the survey stated that overall, loan standards were tightening, and demand for commercial and industrial loans from various sized businesses weakened. Additionally, banks reported that loan standards were tightening or remained stable, while demand for commercial real estate loans weakened or remained stable. As for household loans, banks reported that loan standards remained generally unchanged, and overall, demand for most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans weakened. Banks also reported that loan standards for home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) remained essentially unchanged, but demand increased. In addition, banks reported that they had increasedThe standards for credit card loans have been tightened, while the standards for car and other consumer loans have remained basically unchanged. Meanwhile, demand for credit cards and other consumer loans has weakened, while demand for car loans has remained basically unchanged.In April, the tariff revenue in the United States surged by 130% year-on-year to $16 billion. Data from the U.S. Treasury Department shows that tariff revenue reached $16 billion in April, an increase of $9 billion from the same period last year, representing a 130% increase. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, this sets a record for the highest monthly tariff revenue in at least a decade. The surge in tariff revenue helps to curb further expansion of the U.S. budget deficit. However, President Trump is seeking trade agreements with specific countries, which may lead to a reduction in tariff revenue in the future. In the first seven months of this fiscal year, the U.S. federal government recorded a deficit of $1.05 trillion, an increase of 13% compared to the same period last year after adjusting for calendar year differences. Treasury officials stated that excluding deferred tax payments that boost revenue for fiscal year 2024, the actual increase in the fiscal year 2025 deficit was 4%. In addition to tariffs, another category of revenue that has seen growth this fiscal year is consumption tax, which has increased by $10 billion in the past seven months. Treasury officials attribute this increase mainly to the newly imposed stock buyback tax. Federal Reserve Board Governor Kudlough: Policy stance can still withstand any future economic changes. Federal Reserve Board Governor Kudlough said that following last week's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Fed's policy stance can still effectively deal with any changes in the future economic environment. Due to new tariffs, the economic outlook has become "more uncertain," and economic growth this year may be slower than last year, but "the latest data shows that the economy is resilient." I believe that our current monetary policy stance is in a favorable position to deal with any changes in the macroeconomic environment. Trump's "Grand Tax Cuts Act" announced: Plans to cut taxes by $4 trillion over ten years, with no mention of the millionaire tax proposal. The House Ways and Means Committee released a tax bill on Tuesday ahead of the scheduled debate, signaling that the Republican-controlled House is pushing for a full-house vote on the legislation this month. The bill plans to cut taxes by over $4 trillion over the next ten years and reduce spending by at least $1.5 trillion. The bill would raise the U.S. debt ceiling by $4 trillion, lower than the $5 trillion the Senate is hoping for. This legislation, dubbed by Trump as a "grand and exceptional act," is a core measure of his administration's agenda. The bill continues many tax reductions from Trump's first term set to expire at the end of this year. It includes some key campaign promises by Trump, but does not mention his proposal to tax millionaires based on levels. According to the bill text, individual income from tips and overtime will be exempted from personal income tax until 2028. One of the most contentious issues, which includes the controversial deadlock over increasing state and local tax deductions, has not been resolved. The bill would raise the limit on state and local tax deductions for married couples filing jointly from $10,000 to $30,000, but set a threshold of $200,000 in annual income or income twice that for joint filers. However, lawmakers from high-tax states are advocating for greater tax relief. SEC may completely reform rules for cryptocurrency brokers. SEC Chairman Atkins stated on Monday that the current framework that allows brokers to serve as digital asset custodians may need to be scrapped and replaced, revealing that autonomous custody of cryptographic assets by hedge funds is being considered. Currently, only two institutions in the U.S. have obtained "special purpose broker-dealer" licenses. Atkins stated at a digital asset roundtable that the sluggish response stems from "significant restrictions" imposed by the previous administration. He emphasized, "Brokers have never been banned from custodial non-securities cryptographic assets or cryptographic securities." However, he also pointed out that the SEC may need to clarify how client protection and capital requirements apply to such institutions. Atkins has asked SEC staff to explore developing a new regulatory path for cryptocurrency, including studying whether to revise custody rules to allow hedge funds, trading firms, and investment advisors to self-custody digital assets. Trump signs executive order to lower drug prices, seeking at least a 59% decrease. President Trump signed an executive order on Monday instructing pharmaceutical companies to lower drug prices, aligning U.S. prices with those in other countries. The executive order sets price targets for pharmaceutical companies for the next 30 days, and if these companies do not make "significant progress" towards these targets within 6 months of the order being signed, further action will be taken to lower prices. Trump stated at a press conference that if U.S. prices do not match those in other countries, the government will impose tariffs on companies, and he is seeking to reduce drug prices by 59% to 90%. Stock News General Motors Company (GM.US) has hired former Tesla, Inc. autonomous driving development director Sterling Anderson as Chief Product Officer. General Motors Company has hired Sterling Anderson, former director of Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving project and co-founder of autonomous driving startup Aurora Innovation Inc., as the company's Chief Product Officer, responsible for all vehicle development work. General Motors Company stated that Anderson will be responsible for the development of gasoline and electric vehicles, including hardware, software, and services, and will report to company president Mark Reuss. Anderson previously served as Chief Product Officer at Aurora. The company announced his departure in a regulatory filing last week. Anderson left Aurora shortly after the company launched fully automated heavy-duty trucks on public roads in Texas.