OPEC's increase in production hits oil prices to a four-year low, prompting Wall Street to urgently lower expectations.

Notice that Saudi-led radical measures are reshaping the global oil market landscape - through OPEC+ significantly increasing production, this action is forcing Wall Street analysts to downgrade oil price forecasts, revise warnings of oversupply, and prepare for more variables. On Monday, Brent crude futures closed down 2.7% at $59.63 per barrel. Crude oil futures prices plummeted on Monday, after OPEC+ announced an additional increase in production of 411,000 barrels per day in June. This approved production increase meeting was held two days early on Saturday, and after the data was released, Riyadh immediately warned of the possibility of further production increases. Goldman Sachs slashed its Brent crude price forecast by 2-3 dollars per barrel for the next two years, while Morgan Stanley made a larger adjustment, lowering its forecast by 5 dollars for this quarter. Dutch ING Group also simultaneously lowered its expectations. The oil market has been turbulent this year due to the Trump administration's aggressive trade war, causing concerns about economic recession and volatile risk appetite. At the same time, there has been a dramatic shift in OPEC+ policy, abandoning previous plans for small gradual monthly production increases and instead taking more aggressive measures to restore closed capacity. This has led to futures prices falling to four-year lows, forcing analysts to repeatedly revise their forecasting models as the situation changes. Saudi Arabia has linked this OPEC+ production increase to the restructuring of member countries that have repeatedly violated output commitments, with a focus on Kazakhstan and Iraq. In addition, Riyadh may also be influenced by geopolitical considerations, seeking goodwill from the U.S. government and possibly aiming to curb the rise of U.S. shale oil. "We still adhere to our key judgment: despite relatively tight spot fundamentals, the combination of high spare capacity and high recession risks exacerbates downside risks for oil prices," Goldman Sachs analysts Daan Struyven and others pointed out in a report. They believe that in addition to targeting member countries, OPEC+s actions may also aim to "strategically restrict the supply of U.S. shale oil." This investment bank, which adjusted price forecasts twice in one week earlier this year, stated that it will recalculate global market supply and demand balance in the coming days, reflecting concerns about supply growth exceeding demand. Morgan Stanley's revised price forecast - setting Brent oil price expectations at $62.5 per barrel for the third and fourth quarters - is based on its expectation of a more serious oversupply. The bank believes that after OPEC+s latest measures, oversupply in the second half of the year will increase by 400,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.1 million barrels per day. Morgan Stanley analysts Martijn Rats and others wrote in a report, "We interpret OPEC+'s statement as possibly speeding up the complete cancellation of production quotas." As oil prices fall, ING focuses on Saudi Arabia's ability to withstand low oil prices and the complex global situation. "The key to how far Saudi Arabia will take this incipient price war lies in the country's tolerance for long-term low oil prices," said Warren Patterson, head of commodity strategy, adding, "With tariff risks, the oil market already faces significant demand uncertainty. The change in OPEC+ policy adds another variable to the supply side." Patterson of ING added, "OPEC+'s more aggressive production increase means that an oil surplus will arrive earlier, putting the market in a state of oversupply throughout 2025."