Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock indexes fell together as the US GDP unexpectedly shrank in the first quarter, and the "small non-farm" in April fell far short of expectations.

1. Pre-market trends On April 30th (Wednesday), before the US stock market opened, futures for the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Dow futures were down 0.76%, S&P 500 index futures were down 1.27%, and Nasdaq futures were down 1.79%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index fell 0.14%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.10%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.03%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell 0.49%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 1.49% to $59.52 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.39% to $62.40 per barrel. Market News US first-quarter actual GDP unexpectedly declined by 0.3% year-on-year, exacerbating recession concerns. The US actual GDP for the first quarter annualized initial value fell by 0.3% on a quarterly basis, below market expectations of growth of 0.3%, marking a new low since the second quarter of 2022. The contraction in the US economy in the first quarter was mainly driven by businesses stockpiling imported goods to avoid cost increases, highlighting the destructive impact of Trump's chaotic tariff policy. This will heighten market concerns about an economic recession and bring back bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts, supporting gold prices returning to historic highs. Under the threat of tariffs, the US goods trade deficit hits a record high! In March, the US goods trade deficit unexpectedly widened to a historic high, as businesses continued to import goods before tariffs took effect. This indicates that the US economic output data for the first quarter may be significantly affected, as the surge in imports in a single month is likely a final push by US companies to ensure supply of goods and materials before tariffs take effect. Recent forecast data shows that a weak US economy is inevitable. The US goods trade deficit in March increased by 9.6% month-on-month, reaching $162 billion. Media: Musk no longer a regular presence at the White House, DOGE team will continue to work. Musk is no longer regularly working at the White House and is preparing to gradually step back from his official role in the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles said in an interview with the newspaper, "I no longer meet with him in person, but we talk on the phone, and the end result is the same." Wiles emphasized that Musk's team will continue to work in the administrative office next to the West Wing of the White House, and his team will not withdraw. It is not yet clear how often Musk plans to return to the White House before the end of May when the term of not being paid as a special government employee ends. World Gold Council: Global gold demand in Q1 reaches highest level since 2016. The World Gold Council (WGC) said on Wednesday that global gold demand (including off-exchange transactions) in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 1% year-on-year to 1,206 tons, the highest level for a quarter since 2016. Gold ETF fund inflows rose significantly, driving total investment demand to 552 tons, a 170% year-on-year increase, the highest level since the first quarter of 2022. Demand for gold bars and coins in the first quarter remained high at 325 tons, 15% above the five-year quarterly average. Global gold jewelry demand (the main category of physical demand) decreased by 21% to 380.3 tons, the lowest level since the pandemic in 2020. Another main source of gold demand, purchases by central banks in the first quarter, decreased by 21% to 243.7 tons. Stock News AI hype warning signal reappears! Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.US) preliminary results fall far below expectations. The company expects sales of $4.5 billion to $4.6 billion in the third quarter, significantly below the analyst's average expectation of $5.35 billion and well below the company's previous guidance of around $5.5 billion. In the quarter ending on March 31st, adjusted earnings per share were only between $0.29 and $0.31, while the market was expecting $0.53. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) starts construction on its third plant in the US. Taiwan SemicondTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR has started construction on its third chip factory in the state of Arizona, as the Trump administration threatens to further impose tariffs to stimulate domestic manufacturing in the United States. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR is accelerating its expansion in the United States. As the world's most advanced chip manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR announced the third phase of its expansion plan in the United States. On the same day, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick inspected Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR's factory site in Arizona. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR called this the largest foreign investment in US history.Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) Q1 revenue increased by 10% year-on-year, reaching a historical high, with strong rebound in the storage business. The financial report shows that Samsung's Q1 revenue reached 79.1 trillion Korean won (approximately 554 billion US dollars), an increase of 10% year-on-year, setting a single-quarter historical record; operating profit was 6.7 trillion Korean won, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, exceeding analyst's average expectations by 4.7%. Among them, the operating profit of the chip business reached 1.1 trillion Korean won, a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter, and the memory business revenue almost doubled year-on-year, becoming the core growth engine. Weight loss drug "breaks wrist", core drug under pressure Pfizer Inc. (PFE.US) plans to "buy buy buy" to strengthen the weakness in heart metabolism. In the first quarter of 2025, Pfizer Inc. disclosed in its financial report that after the setback in the development of the oral weight loss drug Danuglipron, the company will accelerate its layout in the field of heart metabolism through acquisitions or collaborations to fill the gap in its product line. The financial report shows that although Pfizer Inc.'s Q1 revenue of 13.7 billion US dollars was below market expectations, the adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations, and the company maintained the upper limit of its full-year profit guidance. Carter's Incorporated (CAT.US) Q1 performance falls short of expectations, tariff impact may lead to a slight decrease in annual sales. Due to weak demand for construction equipment, the company's performance was below analyst expectations. Carter's Incorporated stated that if tariffs continue to exist, and the economy enters a recession in the second half of the year, this year's sales are expected to slightly decline, but overall remain in line with expectations. Financial data shows that the company's first-quarter sales and revenue were approximately 14.2 billion US dollars, a decrease of about 10% year-on-year, lower than the LSEG compiled analysts' average expectations of 14.66 billion US dollars, with adjusted earnings per share decreasing to 4.25 US dollars, lower than analysts' average expectations of 4.35 US dollars. The company pointed out that the decline in sales was mainly due to changes in distributor inventories. Meanwhile, Carter's Incorporated provided a performance outlook consistent with previous expectations. As a barometer of the global economic health, Carter's Incorporated's products are widely used in the construction, mining, energy, and transportation sectors across continents. Volkswagen (VWAGY.US) Q1 profit sharply decreased by 40%, tariff shadows cover European auto companies. Profit in the first quarter declined by 40%, as rising manufacturing costs reduced profit margins, and US tariffs cast a shadow over the prospects of this German car manufacturer. The company stated on Wednesday that for the three months ending in March, pre-tax profit was 3.1 billion euros, lower than the 5.1 billion euros in the same period last year. Group operating profit margin decreased from 6% to 3.7%. Prior to this, Volkswagen's subsidiary Deluxe Corporation's sports car brand Porsche revised down profit expectations earlier this week, citing the impact of tariffs and weaker than expected sales of electric vehicles. However, uncertainty surrounding tariffs has led to other car manufacturers, including Mercedes-Benz Group, Volvo Cars, and General Motors Company (GM.US), completely canceling their forecasts. TotalEnergies (TTE.US) allocates 20 billion US dollars for share buybacks, while maintaining dividend growth target. The French energy giant emphasized its low debt level and robust balance sheet, announcing an additional 20 billion US dollars in share buybacks in the second quarter, while maintaining its dividend growth target of 7.6% for the year and keeping its capital expenditure plans unchanged. The financial report shows that the first quarter's adjusted net profit was 4.19 billion US dollars, lower than the 5.11 billion US dollars in the same period last year, and slightly below analysts' expectations of 4.38 billion US dollars. The company predicts that oil prices will fluctuate in the range of 60-70 US dollars per barrel in the coming months due to slow economic growth, trade disruptions, and the impact of OPEC+ production increases, putting continued pressure on refining and petrochemical profits. Important economic data and event forecast At 22:00 Beijing time US March PCE Price Index YoY, US March Core PCE Price Index YoY, US March Personal Spending MoM, US March Personal Income MoM, US March Seasonally Adjusted Existing Home Sales Index MoM Performance forecast Early Thursday: Microsoft Corporation (MSFT.US), Meta (META.US), Qualcomm (QCOM.US), eBay (EBAY.US) Thursday pre-market: Lloyd's Bank (LYG.US), Eli Lilly (LLY.US), Mastercard (MA.US), McDonald's Corporation (MCD.US), Roblox (RBLX.US)