From 10 to "millions" of Robotaxi on the ground! Musk vows to complete by the end of 2026.
With the scheduled launch of Tesla's self-driving taxi service in June in Austin, Texas, the market is focusing on the potential impact of this innovative business on short-term profitability and investor confidence.
As Tesla, Inc.'s self-driving taxi service is set to debut in Austin, Texas in June, the market is focusing on the potential impact of this innovative business on short-term profitability and investor confidence. During the first quarter earnings call, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk revealed a phased expansion plan: initially testing 10 to 20 Model Y taxis equipped with the latest version of Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, with plans to expand the fleet to "millions of vehicles" by the end of 2026. To ensure the service lands successfully, Tesla, Inc. has deployed around 300 test operators in Austin, some of whom have already transitioned to remote monitoring positions.
Users need to book the service through Tesla, Inc.'s exclusive app, a process similar to Uber Technologies, Inc. or Lyft: enter the destination, and the system will dispatch a nearby self-driving vehicle for pickup. This service is completely based on Tesla, Inc.'s pure vision-based FSD system, which has undergone multiple rounds of optimization. While Musk claims that they will launch a "fully unsupervised" version that does not require human intervention, the current testing phase still includes safety drivers and a remote support team to ensure technical stability.
Tesla, Inc. plans to expand the service to other U.S. cities by the end of the year, and introduce a sharing model similar to Airbnb, Inc. Class A, allowing private car owners to link their vehicles to the Siasun Robot & Automation taxi network to earn income. ARK Invest analyst Akaash TK points out that if things progress as expected, Tesla, Inc. could have an operational scale of around 100,000 vehicles by the end of the year, with the June debut in Austin serving as a key milestone to validate its commercial viability.
If Tesla, Inc. accelerates its deployment as planned, its autonomous taxi business may quickly catch up with the current industry leader Waymo (a subsidiary of Alphabet Inc.). However, ARK Invest warns that safety incidents during the early operational stages may become a focus of public opinion, and that the reliability of the technology needs to be continuously observed.
Overall, Tesla, Inc. is attempting to reshape the mobility economy through autonomous taxi services, but in the short term, it still needs to balance technology maturity, operational efficiency, and public acceptance. Musk's vision of a "million-vehicle fleet" is progressing from PowerPoint presentations to real-world testing, and the self-driving Model Y on the streets of Austin may become the first test of Tesla, Inc.'s AI capabilities.
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