Huafu Securities: Imports at the mine end continue to tighten, and overseas antimony ingot prices remain strong.

Huafu Securities released a research report stating that in March, the import volume of antimony ore in China decreased significantly, while the production of antimony ingots increased but the production of antimony oxide decreased. The price of antimony surged by 144% year-on-year, with strong international demand but domestic materials are facing shortages. Downstream production of photovoltaic glass decreased, while demand for chemicals, PET, and other materials increased. It is necessary to be cautious about import policies and demand fluctuations. Demand is still weak, but selling pressure is basically cleared, and major factories are supporting prices. It is expected that the price of antimony will stabilize. It is recommended to pay attention to Hunan Gold Corporation (002155.SZ), Guangxi Huaxi Nonferrous Metal - a leading company in tin/antimony resources, and Tibet Huayu Mining (601020.SH) which has increased production capacity. Key points from Huafu Securities are as follows: Antimony ore 1) Single antimony ore: In March 2025, 1483 tons of antimony ore were imported, down 55.8% month-on-month and 63.9% year-on-year; 9530 tons were imported from January to March, down 25.5% year-on-year. In March, China imported from Tajikistan 272 tons, Russia 0 tons, Peru 267 tons, Thailand 61 tons, Myanmar 17 tons, Bolivia 293 tons, Chad 25 tons, Zimbabwe 111 tons, Australia 0 tons, and Kyrgyzstan 344 tons. 2) Gold antimony ore: In March, companies registered in Shandong imported other precious metal ore from Russia totaling 11590 tons, up 144% month-on-month and 130% year-on-year; from January to March, the total import was 37121 tons, up 11.3% year-on-year. Antimony ingots 1) Production: In March, the production of antimony ingots was 6778 tons, up 13.8% month-on-month and 16.5% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 192,000 tons, up 7.5% year-on-year. 2) Exports: 20 tons were exported in January, none in February, and 137 tons in March. Antimony oxide 1) Production: In March, the production of antimony oxide was 6705 tons, up 1.3% month-on-month and down 24% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 209,000 tons, down 17.1% year-on-year. 2) Exports: In March, 901 tons were exported, up 7.3% month-on-month and down 75.2% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative export was 3448 tons, up 2.3% year-on-year. Downstream demand 1) Sodium antimonate: In March, the production was 2079 tons, up 30.7% month-on-month and down 49.3% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 5750 tons, down 51.3% year-on-year. 2) Photovoltaic glass: In March, the production was 1.97 million tons, up 7.1% month-on-month and down 11.3% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 5.67 million tons, down 12.5% year-on-year. 3) Chemical fibers: From January to March, the cumulative production was 20.63 million tons, up 11.3% year-on-year. 4) ABS resin: In March, the production was 570,000 tons, up 11.4% month-on-month and 40.8% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 1.64 million tons, up 31.9% year-on-year. 5) PET: In March, the total production of polyester chips, polyester flat chips, polyester short fibers, and polyester filament yarn was 6.27 million tons, up 19% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year; from January to March, the cumulative production was 17.28 million tons, up 12.1% year-on-year. Supply and demand and prices As of April 18, the factory inventory of antimony oxide was 5650 tons, down 620 tons year-on-year. As of April 21, 2025, the price of antimony ingots in China was 237,500 yuan/ton, up 144% year-on-year, while the international price of antimony ingots was $58,500 per ton, up 402% year-on-year. The foreign market is still hot, and there are no expectations of a price rollback yet. The price of antimony ingots in China has rolled back, but some manufacturers still have high prices. Due to the rise in bromine prices, downstream orders for bromine antimony flame retardants have been greatly affected, leading to weaker demand. Customs may impose stricter export controls on antimony products, leading to continued tight supply of domestic materials. Risk warning Downstream demand is lower than expected, and the increase in imports of antimony ore from Russia exceeds expectations, as do export controls.