Tianfeng: Policies continue to drive offline retail, and the export of white goods remains highly prosperous.
According to data from AVCloud, the growth rate of white goods sales has improved significantly since September 2024 due to policy factors, and cumulative data from 2025 indicates that offline channels are driving larger growth.
Tianfeng released a research report stating that, according to data from Oviyun, the growth rate of white goods sales has improved significantly since September 24, driven by policies. Cumulative data for 25 shows that offline channels have a larger impact on sales. In terms of exports, from January to February, exports to Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia markets have shown good growth. The United States market has seen a slight decline in orders due to tariffs, but demand still exists. Currently, exports are mainly routed through Southeast Asia to avoid higher tariffs. In terms of black goods, for exports to the US, short-term tariffs can be avoided by using Vietnamese factories for shipments; in the medium to long term, top brands have a first-mover and scale advantage in global capacity repositioning.
Key points from Tianfeng:
White goods: Policies continue to drive offline retail and maintain high export demand
1) For domestic sales, shipments have been boosted significantly since the fourth quarter of 24 due to policy incentives. It is estimated that internal sales shipments of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines will increase by +10%/-3%/+7% respectively year-on-year in the first quarter of 25, and +19%/-9%/0% respectively in the second quarter. In terms of retail, data from Oviyun shows that sales of white goods have improved significantly since September 24, with offline channels having a larger impact.
2) As for exports, appliance exports have outperformed the market so far this year. In the new emerging markets, the export volumes for air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines are 138/112/46 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +20%/+11%/+2% (compared to +41%/+18%/+10% in the fourth quarter of 24). Exports to Latin America, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia have shown good growth from January to February, while the US market has seen a slight decline in orders due to tariffs. Exporters are currently redirecting shipments through Southeast Asia to avoid high tariffs.
Information on other categories can be provided upon request.Ficial Environment (002011.SZ) and others.Risk warning
Decline in the vitality of the real estate market; exchange rate volatility risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; new product sales falling below expectations.
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