Canalys: China's mainland PC market rebounds in Q4 2024, expected to achieve a 3% growth in 2025.

Canalys (now part of Omdia) latest data shows that driven by a surge in consumer demand of 8%, the PC market in mainland China started to recover in the fourth quarter of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 2%. Laptop sales increased by 6%, reaching 8.6 million units. Meanwhile, desktop sales dropped by 9% to 2.9 million units. The shipment of tablets remained relatively stable, only declining by 1% to 8.3 million units. Despite a slight recovery in PC shipments towards the end of the year, the full-year shipments still decreased by 4% to 39.7 million units due to weak demand in the commercial market. However, the tablet market saw a significant growth of 11%, reaching 31.5 million units, and is expected to continue its growth momentum in 2025. Canalys predicts that, with the help of government consumer subsidies and the release of new products from major manufacturers, the PC market in mainland China will grow by 3% to reach 41 million units, and the tablet market will grow by 1% to reach 31.9 million units. Canalys analyst Emma Xu stated, "Government consumer subsidies have been the core driver of growth in the second half of 2024, and further incentive measures are expected to support the strong performance of the PC market in mainland China into the first half of 2025. Various manufacturers have introduced new PCs to encourage consumers to upgrade, with prices ranging from around 4,000 yuan to over 10,000 yuan. The subsidy policy of up to 2,000 yuan per device will continue into 2025. In the backdrop of weak demand post-COVID-19 and the end of support for Windows 10 in October this year, this policy is expected to drive a significant device upgrade in the market." With the continuation of the subsidy plan, the key for manufacturers to capitalize on this national stimulus policy and seize market share will be to offer competitive products, implement effective marketing strategies, and strengthen distribution and execution capabilities. Starting from January 2025, tablets were also included in the government subsidy program. Chinese smartphone manufacturers quickly strengthened their channel strategies to leverage this stimulus policy to increase tablet shipments. In addition, Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) launched new, competitively priced iPads and Macs in March 2025, timely aligning with these subsidy policies to further stimulate demand for new users and upgrades from existing users. Canalys predicts that with the continued government subsidies and the ongoing replacement of domestic devices by government and large state-owned enterprises, the PC market in mainland China will resume growth in 2025. The overall PC market is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year to reach 41 million units. The consumer market is expected to rebound from a low base in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 13% in the first half of 2025. Additionally, the commercial sector is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year for the full year, but a full recovery in demand from small and medium enterprises may take longer. The tablet market is expected to achieve a moderate growth of 1%, with shipments reaching 31.9 million units in 2025. With the support of government subsidies, the consumer market for tablets is expected to grow by 3% year-on-year. Canalys data shows that AI PC shipments steadily increased in 2024, reaching 5.8 million units, accounting for 15% of the total PC shipments in mainland China last year. This trend is expected to accelerate, with AI PCs projected to represent 34% of the total PC shipments in the Greater China region by 2025. The emergence of DeepSeek has positioned itself as an important player in the AI field, further promoting China's leading position in AI. This open-source and cost-effective AI model has not only gained popularity among individual users but has also quickly penetrated commercial environments in the private and public sectors. PC manufacturers have also taken action, with companies like Lenovo (00992) and Honor quickly integrating DeepSeek into their internal AI assistant products. Canalys analyst Emma Xu stated, "For PC manufacturers in mainland China, the two AI pathways previously proposed by Canalys are becoming a reality, and at a faster pace than other markets. As AI models become more efficient, and ecosystems including AI assistants and agents mature, manufacturers who are at the forefront in developing AI agents and platforms will have a first-mover advantage in seizing market share. As China's unique AI ecosystem rapidly develops, manufacturers must be prepared to collaborate deeply with Chinese innovators to adapt to trends and capitalize on emerging opportunities."