Former US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Market reaction to Trump administration policies is excessive and unlikely to lead to economic recession.

Former US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that he believes the market has reacted excessively to policy adjustments by the Trump administration and emphasized that the US economy is not at risk of imminent recession. Mnuchin said in an interview, "I do not believe that the US will fall into an economic recession, nor do I believe that the current economic outlook indicates that we are heading towards a recession." He also refuted former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers' view that there is a "50% chance of the US economy falling into recession", stating that he completely disagrees with this. During the early months of its second term, the Trump administration further escalated tensions with major trading partners such as Canada, Mexico, and China. The White House has announced and subsequently revoked tariff policies multiple times, while the federal government has continued to cut jobs. These factors seem to have affected consumer and small business confidence, leading to low market sentiment. The GDPNow forecast model of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank currently predicts a contraction in the US economy in the first quarter. However, this forecast differs from the expectations of most Wall Street economists, who generally predict that the US economy will maintain modest growth. Regarding the recent pullback in the stock market, Mnuchin pointed out that market adjustments are natural and should not be interpreted as a signal of economic recession. As of Tuesday, the S&P 500 index had fallen 9.4% from its historical high, while the Nasdaq Composite index had dropped 13.7% from its peak. However, Mnuchin believes that these adjustments are normal corrections from high levels. "No one should interpret the natural and healthy adjustment of stock indices as a sign of economic distress." Mnuchin was seen as a "stabilizing force" in fiscal policy during Trump's first term and was also one of the main architects of economic relief plans during the COVID-19 pandemic. He said that during his tenure at the Treasury, he did not pay attention to daily fluctuations in the stock market, but saw it as an "barometer" of long-term economic trends. Recently, Trump also stated that he would not pay too much attention to stock market fluctuations. After leaving government office, Mnuchin founded the investment company Liberty Strategic Capital and has been focused on investment activities. He believes that the fundamentals of the US economy remain solid and that short-term market fluctuations should not be overinterpreted. In the future, the direction of the US economy will continue to be influenced by trade policies, market confidence, and the global economic environment.