US-Canada trade tariffs delayed again to ease market concerns, Canadian crude prices rise.
11/03/2025
GMT Eight
With the constantly delayed effective date of tariffs, concerns about US President Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Canadian oil are decreasing, driving up Canadian crude oil prices.
Data shows that on Monday, the price of Western Canadian Select crude oil for April delivery was $11.50 lower per barrel than the US benchmark WTI crude oil. This is the smallest discount since Trump first threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian imports on November 15 last year.
Concerns about tariffs in the Canadian oil industry have eased.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Monday that reaching an agreement and canceling tariffs imposed by the US on Canada and Mexico is possible, further strengthening the view that tariffs will not affect Canadian crude oil. These tariffs were originally scheduled to go into effect on February 4, including a 10% tariff on Canadian energy and a 25% tariff on other products imported from Canada and Mexico. These tariffs were initially postponed for a month, and then postponed again last week.
Rystad Energy analyst Susan Bell said, "I feel like we are in a strange world. Considering the market volatility when tariffs are implemented, the market is underestimating the risk of tariffs. Trump is risking taking extremely unpopular economic measures."
In January of this year, as Trump reiterated plans to impose tariffs on neighboring countries, the discount on Canadian heavy crude oil surged to $15.50. Since then, as tariffs have been delayed, the discount has gradually narrowed. In addition, oil exports to the Gulf Coast of Mexico from Canada will not be subject to tariffs, and some oil sand facilities will undergo maintenance starting in April, reducing production, which has also boosted oil prices.
US oil demand in April will be stronger than in March. Bell said that the Keystone Pipeline, which allows Canadian producers to transport oil to markets outside the US, may operate at full capacity, diverting Canadian heavy crude oil from the US Midwest. She also mentioned that the discount on Western Canadian Select crude oil for April reflects a "tightening supply of heavy crude oil."