CoreLogic Real Estate Research: Expected to double the supply of new homes in March and marketing will help in some areas to create a "spring-like" atmosphere.

Ke Rui Real Estate Research released a report stating that it is expected that the supply of new homes in March will double compared to the previous month, reaching the high point of the year. There is a significant differentiation in the market among cities of different levels: first-tier cities show continued high enthusiasm for new listings, with a double increase in supply in March compared to the previous month. Second-tier cities have a less significant increase in supply compared to first-tier cities. Third and fourth-tier cities experienced a concentrated outbreak period in March, after a slow start to the year, with supply in March increasing at the same rate compared to the previous month. In terms of supply structure, the proportion of key cities for basic housing, improvement, and high-end properties is 37%, 51%, and 12% respectively, showing a supply structure dominated by improvement and supplemented by basic housing. Over 70% of cities rely on the main city as the main supplier. It is predicted that in the future market, with the double increase in supply quality and quantity in March coupled with marketing efforts, the probability of a significant increase in new home transactions in core first and second-tier cities will mostly be concentrated between 30% and 50%. 01 Scale: March supply doubles in 28 cities, with concentrated volume in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, etc. March coincides with the peak season for transactions known as the "Gold and Silver months," and the enthusiasm of real estate companies to list properties is steadily increasing. According to CRIC research, the expected added supply of commodity residential properties in 28 key cities in March is 7.21 million square meters, a 166% increase compared to the previous month, and a 36% year-on-year decrease. In absolute terms, due to constraints in land transactions, the volume of properties listed by real estate companies is not as high as before, but the monthly volume is still slightly better than the level seen in October last year, reaching the high point for the year. In terms of levels, first-tier cities show continued high enthusiasm for new listings, with a double increase in supply in March compared to the previous month, with only Shanghai showing a slight weakness among the four major cities. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw significant increases in supply in March, mainly due to the low base during the February Chinese New Year holiday period, with cumulative year-on-year increases in Beijing in the first quarter. Shanghai is expected to enter a "supply shortage period" with a supply volume of less than 100,000 square meters in March, a decrease compared to the previous month. The increase in supply in second-tier cities is not as significant as in first-tier cities. Hangzhou tops the list, with a supply volume of 1.84 million square meters in March, an increase of 783% compared to the previous month and a 116% year-on-year increase; nearly 3,000 units from 30 projects are expected to enter the market. Chengdu, Ningbo, Wuhan, Xi'an, and Tianjin all saw transaction volumes exceeding 300,000 square meters in March, with varying degrees of month-on-month growth but still showing a downward trend year-on-year. Supply in third and fourth-tier cities saw a concentrated outbreak in March after experiencing a slow start to the year, with supply increasing significantly compared to the previous month. 02 Structure: Improvement accounts for over half, basic housing for about 40%, with over 70% of cities having the main city as the main supplier Looking at the distribution of different product grades in terms of supply structure in key cities, basic housing, improvement, and high-end properties account for 37%, 51%, and 12% respectively, showing a supply structure dominated by improvement and supplemented by basic housing. Looking at individual cities, (1) only Kunming, Nanning, Wuxi, Shanghai, Qingdao, Tianjin, and Shenzhen have basic housing supply accounting for over 60%, with Shanghai and Shenzhen introducing new policies to promote basic housing, leading real estate companies to increase the proportion of basic housing supply. (2) Suzhou, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Changchun, Xiamen, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Jinan still rely on improvement projects, with proportions exceeding 80%, with Suzhou, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, and Changchun having improvement supply ratios of 100%. (3) Xi'an and Wuhan both have supplies that cater to both basic housing and improvement, with proportions exceeding 40%. (4) The proportion of high-end products in Fuzhou rose significantly this month, reaching 73%. Looking at the distribution of projects in different regions in key cities, the proportion of the main city, near outskirts, and far outskirts is 70%, 21%, and 9% respectively, with the focus of supply still concentrated in the main city this month, followed by near outskirts and the far outskirts. Looking at individual cities, Zhangzhou, Quanzhou, Fuzhou, Zhengzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Hefei, Xi'an, Chongqing, Hangzhou, Nanning, Wuxi, and other main cities have proportions exceeding 90%, while Changsha, Changzhou, and others mainly focus on near-outskirts projects, with proportions exceeding 50%; Ningbo, Shenzhen, and others have a mix of main city and near outskirts projects, with proportions around 40%; Suzhou, Shanghai, and others will continue to increase supply in the near outskirts, which is expected to lead to an accumulation of inventory. 03 Prediction: With a double increase in supply quality and quantity in March, along with marketing efforts, new home transactions may usher in a general price increase After reviewing the March supply and considering the current transaction characteristics in each city, a simple prediction can be made regarding the future market conditions: The supply in March has significantly increased, although there is still a gap compared to the same period last year, it has reached the high point for the year. Real estate companies have also strengthened the proportion of improvement projects in the main city, and it is predicted that new home transactions in March will show a gradual recovery trend, with a month-on-month increase, and some cities may experience a localized "spring-like" market. In terms of market heat, the high volatility is expected to continue: According to CRIC monitoring data, the average sales rate of expected projects in 28 key cities in March 2025 is 33%, a 5 percentage point year-on-year increase. It is worth noting that the effects of new policies in first-tier cities are continuing, and the overall market heat is expected to stabilize and increase, with an expected sales rate of 46% in March 2025, a 15 percentage point year-on-year increase. By combining the areas where new listings are expected in March in different cities with a reasonable estimate based on the historical sales situations of different regions since 2024, it is anticipated that transactions of new homes in core first and second-tier cities will likely experience a general price increase in March, with a month-on-month increase concentrated between 30% and 50%. Looking at individual cities, with favorable new policies in place, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are expected to continue their market heat in the short term, with Guangzhou's new home transaction volume expected to double compared to the previous month, mainly due to the gradual recovery of the market after the Chinese New Year holiday period. With the arrival of the spring sales season, it is expected that many projects will increase their promotional efforts and channel incentives for attracting customers, and multiple projects are expected to enter the market in central areas in March, leading to a significant increase in market supply and demand. Core second-tier cities with good fundamentals such as Tianjin, Wuhan, and Nanjing, which have undergone significant adjustments in the previous period, are expected to usher in a wave of recovery, with transaction volumes steadily increasing. Overall, the supply in March is steadily recovering, with a double increase compared to the previous month, although still lagging behind the same period last year, it has reached the high point for the year. Looking at the structure of new listings, improvement projects in the main city are still dominant, combined with the traditional peak season of "Gold and Silver months" marketing, the probability of a month-on-month increase in new home transactions is high. Some cities may experience a localized "spring-like" market: Core first and second-tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou are seeing an increase in the proportion of improvement and high-end listings, which is expected to drive an increase in market heat; core second-tier cities such as Tianjin, Wuhan, and Nanjing are steadily recovering in terms of purchasing power, with transactions expected to stabilize and increase; most third and fourth-tier cities may continue to see a bottoming out trend, with improvement projects performing better than basic housing.Need to adjust.Je t'aime plus que tout au monde.