Huaxi: Screw is a high barrier and high value-added core link. Domestic manufacturers are fully benefiting from the wave of mass production.

Huaxi released a research report stating that the planetary roller screw is a core component of the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation linear actuator, with high technological barriers. Looking ahead to the downstream industry, assuming that the demand for planetary roller screws from a single humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation remains stable at 14, when the production of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation reaches 1 million to 5 million units, the corresponding market demand for planetary roller screws is expected to reach 14.1 billion and 44.5 billion yuan respectively, which will completely open up the demand space for planetary roller screws. With the wave of mass production of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation approaching, the screw, as one of the highest value components, domestic suppliers will benefit deeply; the sector investment is gradually focusing on the fundamental ability to realize, and it is recommended to focus on Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic (601100.SH) which has large-scale production capabilities. Key points from Huaxi are as follows: Planetary roller screw: core component of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation, high barriers and high value components 1) The planetary roller screw is a core component of the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation linear actuator, mainly used for joint linear motion control, driving hands and feet, coordinating with rotating joints to achieve running and jumping actions. Structurally, unlike ball screws, the main difference of the transmission part is the roller, mainly relying on the thread meshing transmission between the roller and the screw and nut to transmit power, thus converting the rotational motion of the servo motor into linear motion, making it have advantages of strong load bearing capacity, long life, small size, and high transmission efficiency. 2) In terms of value proportion, Optimus' overall body uses 14 reverse-type planetary roller screws, combined with an increased quantity of micro screws in the nimble hands. The report estimates that the value proportion of screw components will exceed 19%. 3) The raceway, rollers, and roller nuts of planetary roller screws all have multiple-thread threads with a helix angle of 90, especially reverse-type nuts require precision grinding of internal threads, which poses a strong technological challenge for large-scale high-precision production. Downstream outlook: Machine tool and new energy demand steady growth, humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation opening up market space 1) Ball screws: The global market size in 2022 is approximately 23.05 billion U.S. dollars. By 2025, the estimated domestic market size of machine tool screws and guideways is 4.2 billion yuan and 7 billion yuan respectively, totaling 11.2 billion yuan; the surge in demand for ball screws in new energy vehicles is expected to reach 60.2 billion yuan by 2030. 2) Roller screws: The global market size in 2022 is approximately 1.27 billion U.S. dollars, with a relatively small market size. Demand from traditional industries lies in the accelerated replacement of ball screws and traditional hydraulic systems. If it is assumed that the demand for planetary roller screws from a single humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation remains stable at 14, when the production of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation reaches 1 million to 5 million units, the corresponding market demand for planetary roller screws is expected to reach 14.1 billion and 44.5 billion yuan respectively, which will completely open up the demand space for planetary roller screws. Competition in screw manufacturers is opening up, with process and equipment being key barriers to mass production 1) In terms of competitive landscape, high-end screws are still dominated by overseas companies, with Rollvis and GSA having a market share of 26% in the field of roller screws in China in 2022, totaling over 50%. Nanjing Process and Jining Boke each have a market share of only 8%, and there is a large space for domestic substitution. 2) From the processing technology perspective, the core barrier of roller screws lies in thread processing. Currently, grinding remains the mainstream technology route, making grinding machines one of the main capital expenditures for screw expansion. High-end grinding machines are mainly dominated by European and Japanese companies, with limited overseas capacity and restricted imports, making equipment supply another major industrial barrier. 3) Domestic manufacturers are accelerating their layout in the high-end roller screw field, with a variety of players: Xinjian Transmission announced plans to expand production, investing 1 billion yuan to construct a project producing 1 million units of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation screws per year; Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic's additional investment of approximately 1.5 billion yuan for the linear actuator project; in addition, there is strong synergy between bearing and screw technology, with related companies actively working on layout, and the industry is expected to rapidly advance. Considering batch stability and cost reduction in scale production, it is promising for manufacturers with large-scale precision machining capabilities to move towards the endgame. Risk warning: Industrialization of humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation does not meet expectations, new business expansion of related companies falls short of expectations, etc.