CSRC Rarely Releases Two Sessions Countdown Posters, What Key Points Should Capital Markets Focus On? Fund Chief Looks Ahead to Five Major Directions

China is about to enter the annual "Two Sessions" time, a crucial window for observing the Chinese economy, as both domestic and international observers hope to interpret the future development of the Chinese economy through the "Two Sessions." On March 3, the website of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) rare released a countdown poster for the Two Sessions, saying "2 days to go, focus on the development of the capital market, and pay attention to the 2025 government work report." From the information on the poster, CSRC is expecting the government work report to include content about "deepening the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, and unblocking obstacles for mid-to-long term funding to enter the market." Amidst the changing geopolitical landscape overseas and the significant rise in confidence and market risk appetite of the domestic population since the Spring Festival, with the success of DeepSeek, "Ne Zha 2," and Siasun Robot & Automation, the arrival of the National Two Sessions will bring new attention and expectations from both professional investment research institutions and ordinary investors. The mutual fund industry has expectations for policies, what key points they will focus on, how policies will affect the economic and capital market trends, and how to assess investment strategies. Chief executives of mutual funds provide the latest outlook before the Two Sessions. Focus 1: What macroeconomic policy adjustments do the chiefs expect? Setting the annual economic growth target, the strength of fiscal policies, and the direction of monetary policies are key topics at the Two Sessions. In response to this, chief executives of fund companies provide the latest analysis. Regarding the GDP growth target for 2025, Han Xianwang, the chief economist of Huatai Fund, believes that the GDP growth target for 2025 will be maintained at around 5%. This is mainly because, at the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of last year, it was explicitly stated that stable economic growth should be maintained. The weighted average of the economic growth targets announced by provinces at the local two sessions for 2025 is 5.26%, slightly down from 2024, which suggests that the national economic growth target may remain at the same level as in 2024. In addition, the CPI inflation target may be lowered to around 2%. In terms of fiscal policies, Han Xianwang expects four main strategies: increasing the deficit ratio, possibly rising to around 4%; increasing the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds from the base of 1 trillion in 2024, to further support the implementation of "double reduction" projects and "innovative development" policies; further increasing the quota for local special bonds, expanding the areas for investment and the range of capital used for projects, in order to support local government investment; and in terms of fiscal allocation, further directing towards improving people's livelihoods and promoting consumption, without ruling out further strengthening the support for low-income groups. Regarding monetary policTo accelerate the legislation, the "Private Economy Promotion Law" is speeding up its implementation to fill the gap in specialized legislation. Secondly, optimize market access by revising the new version of the negative list for market access, promoting the opening of monopolistic areas such as energy and communications to private enterprises, and implementing the principle of "non-forbidden, access granted". Thirdly, financing support system, through special credit, bond financing tools pilot projects, relief funds and other measures to alleviate financing difficulties, encouraging banks to increase the ratio of first loans and credit loans to private enterprises.The second type is policies to improve the business environment, which are expected to focus on two issues: first, law enforcement standards, targeting the crackdown on illegal charges and fines; second, addressing the issue of unpaid debts owed to private enterprises, which has been a key policy focus in recent years. State-owned and private enterprises are expected to continue to play a leading role in debt collection, ensuring that debts owed to small and medium-sized enterprises are paid promptly and in full. The third type is policies to support innovation and transformation, such as supporting and encouraging private enterprises to participate in major national science and technology projects, and supporting private enterprises in green transformation. Eligible enterprises will receive certain financial, tax, and financial policy support in line with the policy direction. Focus Three: Measures to improve the institutional system of the capital market Since September last year, important policies related to the capital market have been intensively released, which have had an immediate effect in reversing the continued slump in the A-share market. What are the key points and measures worth paying attention to in terms of improving the institutional system of the capital market on the policy side this year? For expectations regarding capital market policies at the Two Sessions, Han Xianwang pointed out that the relevant statements from the Central Economic Work Conference in December last year can be used as a forward-looking reference, such as "deepening comprehensive reform of capital market financing and investment, removing obstacles and blockages to long-term capital entry into the market, and enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market system." He expects that the Two Sessions will focus on three main directions: First, balancing the investment function and financing function of the capital market, addressing the current imbalance of "heavy financing and light investment" in the market, and promoting a virtuous cycle of investment and financing. Second, promoting the entry of long-term capital into the market, with relevant implementation plans already released in January, and expected to be emphasized again at the Two Sessions. Third, enhancing the inclusiveness and adaptability of the capital market, accepting different types of enterprises and further supporting quality technology enterprises to go public. Additionally, the capital market should be able to adapt to the changes in new business models such as ShenZhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering. Therefore, Han Xianwang suggests two aspects: first, in terms of restoring market confidence, it is recommended to strengthen expectation management, maintain policy communication, and enhance the consistency and coordination of macro policies. Second, in terms of healthy market development, considering increasing the penalties for financial fraud by significantly raising the minimum penalty amount for financial fraud to make the cost of fraud far exceed its benefits, establishing a class action system, and lowering the threshold for investor protection rights. Li Zhan expressed expectations for policy measures focusing on the introduction of medium and long-term funds, reform of the investment side, protection mechanisms for investor rights, quantitative trading and margin trading supervision, support for venture capital and technology enterprises financing, coordination of investment and financing, optimization of basic systems, among other reforms. Focus Four: Policies for the implementation of "new quality productive forces" in the field In addition to economic and social issues, technological innovations such as the "new quality productive forces" have attracted much attention. Since 2025, DeepSeek has attracted widespread attention, and AI has been empowering various industries. Luo Shuixing stated that in recent years, the strength of China's real economy and Chinese manufacturing and intelligent manufacturing has been continuously improving, and the rapid development of AI will ultimately be implemented in industrial empowerment and terminal applications. China's capabilities in terminal manufacturing and applications are leading globally, and the age of AI will ultimately be the age of China. "DeepSeek has greatly increased everyone's confidence in China's technological innovation capabilities, and in the field of AI applications, technological innovation combined with China's manufacturing capabilities advantages, China is likely to be at the forefront of applications globally." Zhu Guoqing stated that the application of artificial intelligence can significantly improve our production efficiency, research and development efficiency, service efficiency, greatly increase labor productivity, and create new consumption scenarios. Many applications are still in the early exploration stage, and there will continue to be gradual results. So what will be the focus in the field of technological innovation? Han Xianwang has three suggestions: First, pay attention to computing power infrastructure. Support the penetration of domestic AI large models (such as DeepSeek) into industries and promote the construction of computing power centers and the circulation of data elements. For example, Zhejiang Province proposed in this year's government work report to "implement basic engineering of large models, data, and computing power in an orderly manner." It is expected that there will be national-level deployments at the National People's Congress in March. Second, industrial integration. Focus on vertical fields such as "AI + manufacturing" and "AI + healthcare," and encourage enterprises to actively apply. Another signal of industrial integration is the recent dense deployment of consumption-related artificial intelligence at the central level, such as the State Council's special study on February 20th indicating "unleashing the potential of AI terminal products and other consumption." Third, embodied intelligent humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. The representative enterprise of embodied intelligent humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, Yushu Technology, appeared twice this year in the Spring Festival Gala and a private enterprises symposium. It is expected that embodied intelligence represented by it will also be one of the key areas of scientific and technological innovation mentioned at the Two Sessions. In Li Zhan's view, measures such as setting up a future industry mother fund, increasing the inclusivity of refinancing for non-profit hard technology companies (such as AI chips, biomedicine), relaxing valuation restrictions on mergers and acquisitions, expanding the equity investment ratio of social security funds and insurance funds in hard technology companies are also worth promoting. Yang Gang pointed out that in the future, relying on the huge market potential, the increasingly strong team of engineers, the continuous learning ability of enterprises, and the diligence spirit of the Chinese nation, the process of technological innovation in China is expected to accelerate continuously. Focus Five: Hot topics for investment main lines in 2025 Since mid to late January, the theme trading in the technology growth sector has been hot, with some funds cashing in on the positive news, causing short-term market fluctuations. How to view this year's investment main lines? What new changes can be expected around the Two Sessions? According to Luo Shuixing, the four main themes for investment in 2025 are technology, bonds, domestic demand, and anti-inwardness. In the technology field, companies like Siasun Robot & Automation, AI applications, solid-state batteries, and defense industry are worth focusing on, while in the bonds sector, utilities, green electricity, real estate, and building materials are relevant. Regarding domestic demand, big consumption and new consumption should be considered, while in the anti-inwardness sector, industries such as chemicals and new energy are worth paying attention to. Zhu Guoqing pointed out that in 2025The stabilization and recovery of the economy are likely to become the main theme. With the stabilization and recovery of the economy, pro-cyclical sectors closely related to the economy, including large financial institutions, midstream manufacturing, and downstream consumption, may receive renewed favor. In addition, the application of AI is worth looking forward to. On the one hand, following the leading applications overseas, on the other hand, Chinese companies are also competitive and have potential in the field of AI applications.In addition, Zhu Guoqing suggested focusing on Hong Kong stocks in the fields of innovative pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, high dividends, and the internet sector. Foreign capital is very sensitive to the clear signal of China's economy stabilizing. If the Chinese economy stabilizes and rebounds, Chinese assets show a profit-making effect, foreign capital is expected to become an important force and source of incremental funds strengthening the trend. Li Zhan believes that one of the major investment themes in 2025 will be technology, and the direction of stable dividends is also worth paying attention to. The stock market is still in the early to middle stages of reevaluation and repair. Technology and the internet are the core areas of this round of market reevaluation and rise. However, assets with strong relevance to the Chinese economy are still relatively low, leading to the A-share market's profit growth lagging behind. In the medium to long term, the stock market is expected to follow profit growth and experience further upward movements. Yang Gang also agrees that technology and consumer goods may become important investment themes in the A-share market this year. As for the potential investment themes that may span the entire year, in addition to the hot topics such as AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, the low-altitude economy is also worth continuous attention. It is expected that the industry will accelerate towards a growth period by 2025. At present, the relevant top-level design plans are expected to be launched soon, focusing on increasing key inputs such as capital, technology, infrastructure, and other critical elements from the supply side. This article is reprinted from "Cailianshe", GMTEight editor: Liu Jiayin.