Trump 2.0 era "high volatility" may become the norm, it is worth imitating the "stock god" Buffett to hold onto these few safe-haven stocks.
03/03/2025
GMT Eight
ohnson The title of "Stock God" Warren Buffett has created returns for long-term shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) (BRK.B.US) that are enough to change their destiny. Even after sixty years, this tireless "Oracle of Omaha" continues to generate excess returns for shareholders of this $1.1 trillion investment empire. With a short-term US Treasury bond holding size larger than the Federal Reserve, record levels of cash and cash equivalents reserves, and a US stock investment portfolio that is quite risk-averse, the "Stock God" has successfully avoided the continuous decline in US stocks since February and has achieved significant excess returns with a portfolio focused on hedging and cash and short-term US Treasury bond reserves.
Buffett continues to advocate for the "cash is king" strategy through his actions, with Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserves reaching a historic high once again. Since 2024, the world's most famous stock investor has shown a strong preference for cash, leading the market to view this as a bet on potential turbulence in the US economy and stock market. The events in early 2025 have proven Buffett's foresight, with a looming atmosphere of stagflation in the US economy causing the S&P 500 index to underperform most emerging markets and European stock indices, while the Nasdaq 100 index has even given back all its gains for the year.
The latest financial reports of Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Buffett, show a significant increase in insurance profits driving operating profits up by 71% in the fourth quarter. While reducing stock holdings, the cash reserves have reached a record $334.2 billion, with cash reserves increasing for the tenth consecutive quarter. It is worth noting that cash now accounts for 29% of total assets, hitting a new high in decades.
Buffett's shareholder letter states that in 2024, there was a significant increase in short-term US Treasury bond holdings, and most of the cash reserves belong to the short-term US Treasury bond portfolio, resulting in foreseeable significant growth in investment returns. In the case of short-term US Treasury bonds (with maturities of one year or less), Berkshire Hathaway has been increasing its holdings since 2024, with a much larger holding size than the Federal Reserve's short-term US Treasury bond holdings. Since the beginning of this year, the massive profits from the surge in short-term US Treasury bonds have likely been significant, not inferior to the returns generated by Buffett's stock investment portfolio.
Short-term, highly liquid financial instruments, such as short-term US Treasury bonds, commercial paper, and bank deposits, are considered as cash equivalents in the investment community due to their high liquidity, extremely low risk, and price stability, enabling investors to redeem them quickly when needed.
Looking ahead, the term "high volatility" in the stock market is likely to be a key theme in the Trump 2.0 era. If one wants to dance with the legendary investment master and attempt to avoid the sharp declines brought about by high volatility, three of Berkshire's "safe haven stocks" are worth paying attention to: Visa (V.US), Coca-Cola Company (KO.US), and Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY.US). Compared to Bank of America Corp and Apple Inc., which Buffett has been reducing holdings in, the positions of these three companies have remained stable for the long term.
It is remarkable to see Buffett's almost prophetic investment vision and extremely sensitive capital scent. Buffett's heavy investment in short-term US bonds and the strong performance of the above three stocks in the recent global stock market turbulence have significantly outperformed global stock market benchmarks. Amidst the continued decline of the so-called "technology stock bellwether" Nasdaq 100 index since February, they have demonstrated the value of hedging investments by achieving excess returns.
Due to Trump's insistence on imposing tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, global stock markets have sharply declined, and concerns about larger tariffs in the future have risen. Under the influence of animal spirits, "momentum trading" was completely reversed last Thursday, turning the leading technology and communication services sectors from 2023-2024 into the worst performers in 2025. In addition, traditional defensive sectors such as healthcare and essential consumer goods suddenly rose in strength overnight. Visa, Coca-Cola Company, and Occidental Petroleum Corporation remained strong and closed higher despite the decline in the three major US indices last Thursday.
Visa: The global digital payments artery, with a long history of steady performance, could be called a "silent money maker."
Even though this undisputed financial technology giant accounts for only 1% of Berkshire's nearly $300 billion stock portfolio, it has shown amazing investment strength. Visa's stock price has surged by as much as 15% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index.
Visa's exclusive digital payment network covers over 200 countries and regions, connecting 4.7 billion debit and credit cards to banks and accounts of 15 million merchants globally. In 2024, Visa processed an astonishing 310 billion transactions totaling nearly $16 trillion.
As the digital "main artery" of global economic transactions, its modest transaction fees accumulate to a net profit of $19.7 billion annually (as of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2024). The solid position of Visa as a fast and secure payment service provider allows it to benefit from the long-term growth of the global economy. Analysts widely expect double-digit revenue and profit growth in the coming years to support its 17-year streak of dividend increases and the profit growth pace that could be considered a "silent money maker."
Coca-Cola Company: The "liquid gold" of 63 years of dividend growth
Holding Coca-Cola Company for over 30 years, Buffett has not only been synonymous with carbonated beverage brands but also a beverage empire covering bottled water, dairy products, coffee, and juices. With a global beverage distribution network and an incredibly strong brand appeal, this global beverage leader that has raised dividends continuously for 63 years keeps turning company profits into new product innovations and shareholder returns. Berkshire's stake in this company, valued at $28 billion, demonstrates its long-term stability.
(Note: The text was too long for a single response, so it has been split into two parts. Please see the next response for the continuation.)The original stake in Coca-Cola Company, supported by the growth potential in both domestic and international markets, still has the potential for appreciation.For over thirty years, Coca-Cola Company has been one of the core holdings of Berkshire Hathaway, owned by Buffett. Due to the large potential for growth in the US and international markets, Berkshire Hathaway's stake in this global beverage leader, valued at $28 billion, may further appreciate in the coming years. Therefore, Buffett has not reduced his holdings in the company for a long time.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation: a dual-track powerhouse in traditional energy and carbon capture
As Buffett's new favorite, Occidental Petroleum Corporation recently received another significant increase in holdings from Berkshire Hathaway, with Berkshire's holdings approaching $13 billion. This energy company, which controls high-quality oil wells in the US Permian Basin, not only occupies a significant position in the oil extraction market due to its scale and infrastructure advantages, but also has an advantage over its competitors in using carbon dioxide to enhance production efficiency through enhanced oil recovery technology. Under the leadership of CEO Vicki Hollub, Occidental Petroleum Corporation is aggressively expanding in the trillion-dollar carbon capture market - it has already reached carbon management agreements with Microsoft Corporation and At&T, and plans to build thousands of carbon sequestration facilities globally. This dual-engine model of "traditional energy cash flow + emerging decarbonization business" is reconstructing the logic of energy investment.