Guotai Junan: AI glasses move from "exploration phase" to "scale outbreak phase" and are expected to become a million-level interactive entrance.

Guotai Junan released a research report stating that the AI glasses industry is experiencing a triple turning point of "user cognition reconstruction, supply chain cost exploration, and scenario demand", and the market outbreak will depend on the head manufacturers' collaborative ability to integrate "wearable attributes and hardcore technology". 2025-2026 will be the key window for victory or defeat. The current competition focus is on mid-range brands and manufacturing layers, with short-term victories in rapid local adaptation and long-term competition for technology, ecology, and user mindset. The industry growth key threshold lies in the resonance of "price breakthrough" and "scenario demand". Guotai Junan's main points are as follows: Industry evolution path: Meta's "product paradigm innovation" propels the AI glasses into the outbreak period Meta Ray-Ban's global success (cumulative sales exceeding 1.6 million units) validates the two core logics of AI glasses success: the "glasses first" product philosophy and consumer-level pricing. 1) Placing the wearing experience above technological stacking, establishing a new paradigm of lightweight AI interaction + scenario focus; 2) Price and scenario dual breakthroughs: entering the consumer-level market with relatively low pricing, building demand around "first-person shooting + real-time translation" high-frequency scenarios, directly reducing supply chain costs, and promoting the industry to enter a positive cycle of "production-sales-technology iteration". This product form of AI glasses effectively meets user demands; and drives the development of the industry chain, with enough upstream and downstream players entering, establishing the formation of a new track. AI applications upgrade smart glasses to "perceptive and decision-making" interaction terminals, injecting acceleration for their scale landing. Industrial chain advantage: The current competition focus is on mid-range brands and manufacturing layers, with short-term victories in rapid local adaptation, and long-term competition for technology, ecology, and user mindset. Guotai Junan believes that the short-term key to victory lies in who can quickly transform the "tool attribute" of AI glasses into an "identity expression symbol", and achieve ecologically localized adaptation from the supply chain to the sales chain. In the long term, the quality of integration capability of the entire value chain of intelligent glasses will determine the competitive landscape. 2025-2026 will be the key period for manufacturers to "stake their claim", with Huawei (technical integration + ecological advantage), Xiaomi (price killer + channel penetration), REN Zhibird Innovation (optical depth) or taking the lead to break through. However, the ultimate survivor must prove that AI glasses are not dependent on mobile phones, but are independent "next-generation interactive entry" level products. The key threshold for growth lies in the resonance of "price breakthrough" and "scene demand" The domestic market scale is essentially a "dynamic game" between technology and demand - if manufacturers can overcome the two hurdles of "price breakthrough" (below 1500 yuan) and "scenario demand" (translation, office efficiency), AI glasses are expected to replicate the growth curve of TWS headphones and challenge annual sales of tens of millions by 2030. Conversely, it may be restricted to niche geek markets in the long term. Taking into account factors such as overseas product transplant effects, price sensitivity, technological breakthrough progress, and channel penetration efficiency, it is expected that 2025 will be the market initiation period, 2026-2029 will be the market outbreak growth period, and 2030 will be the market maturity and stability period, corresponding to annual sales of 500,000-800,000 units, 1-5 million units, and 5-10 million units. Manufacturers exhibiting at CES 2025 are gradually releasing products, Xiaomi is accelerating its entry, and AI glasses sales are expected to increase significantly in 2025, the market launch period. Recommended targets: Hold 11.5% of REN Zhibird Innovation TCL Electronics (01070)(25PE:10.3x); Shenzhen KTC Technology (001308.SZ)(14.8x), expected to release AI glasses in Q2 2025; Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH)(11.2x), which has reached a strategic cooperation with XREAL. Risk warning: Uncertainty risk of AI technology landing.