Sanctions and tariff decisions complicate the situation, OPEC+ still hesitant about whether to increase production in April.

Eight OPEC+ sources said that the organization is discussing whether to resume the increase in production as planned in April or to postpone it again. It is reported that OPEC+ usually confirms its supply policy a month in advance to allow time to allocate oil supply to buyers. Some sources pointed out that OPEC+ will not finalize the April production until March 5th to 7th, as consensus has not been reached so far. This is due to sanctions imposed by the United States on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, making it difficult for OPEC+ member countries to interpret the global oil supply situation. Some sources stated that within OPEC+, the UAE is eager to utilize its growing production capacity and wants to continue increasing output. Russia is also in favor of this. Other member countries, including Saudi Arabia, support postponing the increase in production. Meanwhile, US President Trump once again pressured OPEC+ to lower oil prices. Trump's push for talks between the US and Russia could help reach a peaceful agreement between Russia and Ukraine and facilitate the flow of Russian oil. However, Trump's maximum pressure on Iran and this week's revocation of Chevron Corporation's (CVX.US) operating license in Venezuela has halted the oil flow from these two oil-producing countries, preventing further decreases in oil prices. Sources within OPEC+ stated that the combination of these bullish and bearish factors has made the decision-making process for April extremely complex. They added that Trump's tariff policies could lead to a reduction in global oil demand, further complicating the outlook. For OPEC+, they are faced with a dilemma: whether to begin easing production limits even if the oil demand situation is unlikely to improve in the short term? Restoring production in a market with abundant supply could lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. Postponing the resumption of increased production would help maintain price stability, but doing so also risks losing market control and putting economic pressure on oil-producing countries, potentially angering Trump. Morgan Stanley analysts believe that OPEC+ will once again postpone the increase in production in April. RBC Capital Markets analyst Helima Croft also stated that due to the uncertainty of sanctions and tariffs, OPEC+ may postpone the resumption of increased production until the second half of 2025. However, Jason Prior, head of oil trading at Bank of America Corp, believes that OPEC+ is expected to partially resume the cutback in crude oil production in April following President Trump's call to lower oil prices. Prior stated that OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, may resume around 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil production starting in April. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. previously stated that even if a peace agreement is reached between Russia and Ukraine and the US eases sanctions on Russia, it will not significantly increase Russia's oil supply to the global market. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. pointed out that the main factor limiting Russia's oil production is its compliance with the OPEC+ production cut agreement, rather than the impact of sanctions; furthermore, current sanctions mainly change the direction of Russia's oil exports rather than the total export volume.