Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) will invest \$500 billion in the US. How does Wall Street view it - as industrial relocation or tariff protection?

Note that Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) announced it would invest over 500 billion dollars in the United States over the next four years, which may have sparked enthusiasm from President Trump, but Wall Street's reaction has been mixed. UBS Group AG analyst David Vogt rates Apple Inc. as "neutral," stating that the iPhone manufacturer's supply chain and financial model have raised doubts about its 500 billion dollar plan, which includes building a server factory in Houston. Vogt wrote, "Although the overall number looks large, we believe that, based on historical experience, this figure currently lacks substance." Vogt notes that over 40% of Apple Inc.'s suppliers are located in China or Taiwan, and these suppliers account for about 98% of Apple Inc.'s materials, manufacturing, and assembly direct spending. In contrast, U.S. suppliers only make up 10% of Apple Inc.'s supply chain. Additionally, hiring 20,000 new employees in the next five years would increase Apple Inc.'s workforce by about 12%. If the cost per employee is around 250,000 dollars, then Apple Inc.'s operating expenses would increase by 5 billion dollars per year. Vogt points out that as of the end of December, Apple Inc.'s total property, plant, and equipment only amounted to 120 billion dollars, with capital expenditures of around 49 billion dollars over the past three years, far below companies like Amazon.com, Inc., Microsoft Corporation, and Meta. Finally, in the 2024 fiscal year, Apple Inc. spent around 95 billion dollars on stock buybacks, accounting for about 80% of its operating cash flow. "Therefore, Apple Inc. would need to significantly increase its balance sheet leverage or decrease the pace of buybacks, and we believe that both options are unlikely. Apple Inc.'s AI infrastructure scale is different from that of super-scale enterprises," Vogt writes. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives suggests that this announcement does not mean Apple Inc. is "shifting" its manufacturing business in China, but rather it seems more like a "strategic move" to align with President Trump's investment in America theme. Ives writes, "We believe this is a strategic move taken by Cook and his team to continue manufacturing diversification in the U.S. and globally, while bearing in mind Trump's earlier announced 500 billion dollars Star Gate plan. This move aligns well with Trump's investment theme in America." "Cook continues to prove that he is 10% a politician and 90% a CEO. Despite Trump's threats of tariff actions and market uncertainties regarding Apple Inc.'s growth plans, he will utilize his strong global relationships to ensure Apple Inc.'s future development goes smoothly."