Open source securities: Limited uplift in demand for January broilers, downward trend in chicken prices after the holiday period with sufficient supply background.

Open-source securities released a research report stating that by the end of January, the total inventory of Baiyu ancestors in the industry was 2.139 million sets, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous month. Among them, the in-production inventory increased by 2.9% and the backup inventory decreased by 7.8%. At the current point in time, the inventory of poultry is still relatively high, Baiyu chicken supply is sufficient, and with the arrival of the post-holiday consumption off-season, Baiyu chicken prices are under pressure. At the same time, spring is still a high incidence period for overseas avian influenza, and attention should be paid to the disruption caused by overseas avian influenza. As for the Huangyu chickens, according to data from the China Poultry Association, by the end of January, the total inventory of Huangyu ancestors was 2.6376 million sets, a decrease of 1.73% compared to the previous month. The total inventory of parent breeding chickens was 229.003 million sets, a decrease of 0.25% compared to the previous month, indicating a decrease in supply. The demand for Huang chickens during the January Spring Festival stocking period boosted prices, but with ample overall supply of Huang chickens, prices are expected to fall again after the holiday, and the market may trend towards bottoming out. Key points from Open-source Securities are as follows: Baiyu chicken: Weak demand, sufficient supply, and decreasing prices; attention to disturbance from overseas avian influenza (1) Prices: In January 2025, the average national price of Baiyu chicken was 7.41 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg compared to the previous month. The breeding profit was -1.73 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 0.65 yuan/chicken compared to the previous month. (2) Chicken inventory: By the end of January, the total inventory of Baiyu ancestors in the industry was 2.139 million sets, a decrease of 1.6% compared to the previous month. The total inventory of parent breeding chickens was 37.1851 million sets, a decrease of 3.5% compared to the previous month. The current inventory of poultry is still relatively high, Baiyu chicken supply is sufficient, and with the arrival of the post-holiday consumption off-season, Baiyu chicken prices are under pressure. Also, spring is still a high incidence period for overseas avian influenza, so attention should be paid to disruptions from overseas avian influenza. Huangyu chicken: Limited boost from Chinese New Year consumption, sufficient supply, and decreasing prices after the holiday In January, the average selling price of medium-speed Huangyu chicken in China was 11.30 yuan/kg, an increase of 2.32% compared to the previous month. According to data from the China Poultry Association, the sales volume of Huangyu chicken parent breeding chicken seedlings increased by 11.8% compared to the previous month. By the end of January, the total inventory of Huangyu ancestors had decreased by 1.73% compared to the previous month, indicating a decrease in supply. The demand for Huang chickens during the January Spring Festival stocking period boosted prices, but with ample overall supply of Huang chickens, prices are expected to fall again after the holiday, and the market may trend towards bottoming out. Egg-laying chickens: Limited post-holiday demand and continued downward trend in egg prices By the end of January, the price of egg-laying chicken seedlings was 4.40 yuan each, an increase of 3.53% compared to the previous month. The wholesale price of eggs was 8.14 yuan/kg, a decrease of 7.71% compared to the previous month. The breeding profit for egg-laying chickens was 45.00 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 20.17% compared to the previous month. With the onset of the post-Spring Festival off-season for egg consumption, pressure from egg inventory is high, downstream demand is limited, and egg prices are expected to remain weak. Changes in sales volume, revenue, and average price of Baiyu chicken in January (1) Shandong Yisheng Livestock & Poultry Breeding: In January, chicken sales volume increased by 22.77% compared to the previous month, with an average selling price of 2.67 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.42 yuan/chicken compared to the previous month. (2) Shandong Minhe Animal Husbandry: In January, chicken sales volume increased by 43.48% compared to the previous month, with an average selling price of 2.43 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 1.31 yuan/chicken compared to the previous month. (3) Ningxia Xiaoming Agriculture & Animal Husbandry: In January, the sales volume of chicken products decreased by 6.90% compared to the previous month, with an average selling price of 4.06 yuan/chicken, an increase of 0.35 yuan/chicken compared to the previous month. Decrease in sales volume of Baiyu chicken meat, revenue, and average price in January (1) Shandong Xiantan: In January, chicken meat sales volume decreased by 26.54% compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 29.39% in sales revenue and a decrease of 4.04% in average selling price. (2) Fujian Sunner Development: In January, chicken meat sales volume decreased by 27.49% compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 14.99% in sales revenue and a decrease of 1.82% in average selling price. Decrease in sales volume of Huangyu chicken in January (1) Wens Foodstuff Group: In January, chicken sales volume decreased by 12.23% compared to the previous month, with a decrease of 1.89% in average selling price. (2) Jiangsu Lihua Foods Group: In January, chicken sales volume decreased by 4.44% compared to the previous month, with an increase of 3.24% in average selling price. (3) Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry: In January, live poultry sales decreased by 7.43% compared to the previous month, with an increase of 1.04% in average selling price. Risk Warning Uncertainty in poultry disease; consumption recovery falling short of expectations, etc.