Where is the emotional peak of this round of TMT since the explosive development of the AI industry?

GF SEC released a research report stating that since the outbreak of the AI industry, the overcrowding of TMT transactions in the past 2 years has always attracted market attention. As long as the TMT transaction ratio approaches the upper limit of 40% in the past 2 years, there will be a phase of retracement of excess returns. However, around the Spring Festival of the 25th year, the TMT transaction ratio exceeded 40% and continued to operate at a high level, indicating that the 40% hidden constraint seems to have failed in this round. The main points of GF SEC are as follows: 1. Where is the emotional peak of this round of TMT? In each large-scale technology industry cycle, the centralization of the TMT transaction ratio will experience a noticeable increase, which comes from the increase in the number and market value proportion of component stocks, as well as the improvement in investors' expectations of fundamentals. Currently, the TMT transaction ratio is 44%, and based on past experiences and comparisons with the United States, it is possible that the peak of this round of transaction ratio is between 45% and 50%. 2. After reaching the peak of the transaction ratio in a large technology industry cycle, does it still have guiding significance? In the short term, it is still effective. After reaching the emotional peak, there will be a phase of retracement of excess returns, but the magnitude is not significant. In the medium term, the significance of overcrowding guidance weakens, and market trends depend on whether fundamentals break out, expectations improve, orders, product scale and sales volume, event catalysts, performance growth rate, etc., are all observation indicators. 3. In addition to TMT, new energy, liquor, and other tracks have also experienced an upward trend in the centralization of transaction ratios and oscillating upward trends in excess returns. It should be noted that the improvement in expectations of fundamentals and the release of performance may not necessarily be synchronous. For example, the surge in the scale of mobile games in 2013 and the increase in sales of new energy vehicles in 2020 occurred earlier than the outbreak of sector performance, but they gave investors strong confidence in the improvement of fundamentals. In addition to the improvement in expectations of fundamentals, the continuous inflow of incremental funds is also an important reason for the increase in the centralization of transaction ratios. 4. The emergence of DeepSeek has changed the situation in the past 2 years where TMT lacked fundamental support, and this is also an important reason for the breakthrough in the TMT transaction ratio. For example, in the mid-term market observation in 2009-2010 and 2013-2015, indicators such as the number of application ends, product penetration rates, sales orders, etc. In the past two years, the market performance mainly revolves around hardware and computational end benefits from overseas (NVIDIA) capital expenditures, with representative stocks such as Zhongji Innolight continuously reaching new highs and showing resilience to the trends and overcrowding of the TMT sector. Currently, with the important internet platforms beginning to access and increase capital expenditures, the application end's fundamental prospects have improved significantly, leading to increased demand for computational power. The overcrowding in the TMT sector may continue to remain high and follow the trend, and tracking and validating indicators such as the number of application ends, product penetration rates, sales volume, orders, etc., will be crucial. 5. Core conclusions of the spring fever in the 25th year How to view the sustainability of the spring fever in the 25th year? Historically, the period with the highest risk preference is from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions. In the 30 trading days after the Spring Festival, the overall small and medium cap style is good. From late March to late April, the expectations of the first quarter reports start to be traded, stocks show differentiation, and risk preference slightly decreases. After mid-April, the overall risk preference significantly declines; some sectors may break out in terms of fundamentals, which is known as the "April decision." Technology remains the main theme, and the approach to participating in the technology industry in the future can be carried out along the lines of "low growth at the bottom" and "performance realization in the 25th year." Firstly, low growth can focus on military industry, cultural globalization, satellite, medical equipment, AI education, etc. Secondly, look for technology areas with a high probability of short-term fundamental realization in 25H1, which currently appears mainly in hardware on the end side, Siasun Robot & Automation/Smart driving, reasoning-side computational power, etc.