Cinda: Inflation in the United States may further prolong the high policy interest rates.

Cinda released a research report stating that in January, US inflation exceeded market expectations, and the US may experience higher inflation which could lead to policy interest rates remaining high for a longer period of time. Due to the fact that US inflation is often affected by adjustments at the beginning of the year, it is difficult to determine whether this higher-than-expected inflation is a turning point for further inflation. However, there are still rebound factors in inflation that have not yet appeared, indicating that these potential rebound factors may continue to hinder the smooth decline of core inflation, thus solidifying the longer interest rate path for the Federal Reserve. Firstly, it is currently a sensitive time for inflation escalation, as any rebound in inflation may be exaggerated or overly interpreted by the market. Secondly, with the impact of energy and core goods, the CPI is returning to the "3 era." The market expected the overall US CPI to remain stable, with core CPI falling. However, the actual January US inflation data showed a rebound in both core CPI and overall CPI, significantly higher than market expectations. In terms of breakdown, core service inflation is still in the process of falling, but the rebound in core inflation is mainly driven by the prices of core goods. Overall, the unexpected rise in overall inflation this time is mainly influenced by energy and commodity prices, with the main change in core goods being attributed to fluctuations in the price of used cars. Thirdly, the lagging effect of US rent on further inflation has not yet manifested. Based on the typical lag of about 18 months between house prices and rent prices, this year may be the phase where the rebound in US house prices begins to affect rental inflation. However, based on the performance in January, rent CPI continues to fall, and there is no rebound in overall core services. The lagging effect of rent on inflation was not evident in the January inflation data, indicating that the potential impact of the lagging effect of rent on inflation has not been fully reflected and may likely hinder significant progress in core inflation in the future. Risk factors include geopolitical risks, unexpected rise in international oil prices, and unexpected weakening in the job market.