Guotai Junan: The market size of China's IP-authorized goods and services is nearly 100 billion yuan, with a promising potential for rapid growth.
The global IP authorization market competition is stable, with high and stable concentration among upstream players, while downstream wholesale and retail channels are relatively scattered, and channel networks in different countries have significant differences in layout.
Recently, Guotai Junan Securities released a research report stating that IP consumption is a trillion-level large market, and the potential of the Chinese market is promising. The global IP licensed goods and services market is over 2 trillion yuan in size, with vast space. The Chinese market for IP licensed goods and services is still in a rapid growth stage, with a corresponding market size of nearly 100 billion yuan, and rapid growth potential is expected; by 2023, China's sales of licensed goods and services will reach 13.77 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%, and sales will achieve a compound annual growth rate of 10.6% from 2014 to 2023. The global IP licensing competition pattern is stable, with high and stable concentration in the upstream, while distribution channels in the downstream wholesale and retail sectors are relatively dispersed, and channel networks vary greatly by country. The team is optimistic about companies with the ability to rapidly develop IP products and operate IPs, and they are expected to benefit from the IP traffic boost.
The birth of IP consumption: Different places, same day, population economy is an eternal theme. The rise of IP consumption in China, the United States, and Japan is driven by the change in population structure, economic foundation, and generational consumption trends. As the "personalized consumer" generation with a large population gradually reaches the peak consumption age group, the United States, Japan, and China successively ushered in the golden age of rapid growth in IP consumption in the 1960s-1970s, 1980s, and 2020s, respectively, coexisting with diversified consumption formats. Guotai Junan expects that as age structures and economic development stages evolve, emerging markets such as Southeast Asia will witness further explosive growth in IP consumption.
The timing for IP consumption in China is right, and various business models exist. MNSO: channel-driven companies with a relatively wide range of product categories and target audiences, earning profits through the monetization of traffic under the expansion of offline channels and IP authorization, based on scale and supply chain cost advantages with continuous iteration and rapid turnover of goods; Qingmu Tec Co., Ltd.: through operating online stores such as jellycat and POP MART, achieving self-growth through strong operational capabilities by promoting high growth of brand IPs; Zhejiang China Commodities City Group: offline market volume and prices rising simultaneously, online (CG+ Yi payment) high growth, promoting the layout of Guizi stores under its Aixi Cat supermarket; HAICHANG HLDG: combining IPs with theme parks, with Ultraman theme hall and One Piece treasure area receiving acclaim, expected to continue commercializing IPs.
Investment recommendation: Recommended directions: Companies with channel networks and supply chain advantages, look for companies with the ability to rapidly develop IP products and operate IPs, expected to benefit from IP traffic boost; Companies with offline channel layout related to IP consumption; Companies with layouts in IP consumption related businesses and brand incubation.
Risk warning: Risks related to IP operations not meeting expectations leading to decreased popularity, inventory management, etc.
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