"AI+" the strongest mainline emerges! "God of Stocks on Capitol Hill" and Goldman Sachs set their sights on "AI+ Healthcare"
22/01/2025
GMT Eight
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recently attended the 2025 International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) digital healthcare special session in Las Vegas, Nevada. After meeting with leading companies and experts in the digital healthcare revolution, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. reevaluated the overall framework of the industry and emphasized that "AI + healthcare" will be the core investment theme attracting global capital. In their latest research report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. highlighted a "buy" rating for the cutting-edge healthcare companies Abbott Laboratories (ABT.US) and Teladoc Health (TDOC.US), and also expressed bullishness on another leader in the "AI + healthcare" field, iRhythm Technologies (IRTC.US).
Around the same time as the release of this research report by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., data from Congress revealed that Nancy Pelosi, known as the "Stock Market Goddess of Congress," significantly increased her holdings of equity derivatives of Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), and several other large American tech giants at the end of last year and the beginning of this year. She also chose to allocate to Tempus AI (TEM.US) and Vistra Energy (VST.US), two "AI investment newcomers" expected to benefit greatly from the AI investment boom.
Focusing on technology-driven medical development, Tempus AI has become Pelosi's "new favorite." Following the disclosure of Pelosi's holdings, Tempus AI stock price surged by over 35% at the close of trading on Tuesday, with a further increase of nearly 20% during after-hours trading. The Tempus AI technology platform combines generative artificial intelligence (generative AI), machine learning (ML), genomics, and clinical data analysis to drive advancements in precision medicine.
At the beginning of 2025, the strongest investment theme associated with "AI +" has quietly emerged, with Pelosi wagering real money and Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. covering "AI + healthcare." "AI +," which refers to the deep integration of "AI big models/generative AI applications/AI agents" led by tech giants like OpenAI across various industries, is driving innovation and productivity growth at the forefront.
As the leader of NVIDIA Corporation and known as the "AI father," Jensen Huang has repeatedly referred to "AI + medical science/biology" as the next amazing revolution in the global technology field at various public events. He even declared at a meeting that the age when everyone must learn computers is over, and biology and medicine are the future for humanity.
The deep integration of generative AI with the medical/pharmaceutical field has greatly accelerated progress in various sub-fields, especially in areas such as drug discovery, gene editing, disease diagnosis, patient monitoring, and medical imaging analysis. It is expected that by 2025, there will be a significant breakthrough in research results related to "AI + healthcare" with great commercial potential. Nobel Prize winner in chemistry in 2024, Demis Hassabis, even boldly stated that it is very likely that some AI-designed drugs will enter clinical trials by the end of this year. Hassabis explained that his leadership at Isomorphic Labs focuses on shortening the drug development process from ten years or longer to "weeks or months."
Behind medical technologies incorporating AI big models, the powerful artificial intelligence computing support provided by the "NVIDIA Corporation high-performance AI GPU + CUDA ecosystem" may be essential. NVIDIA Corporation not only provides GPU hardware, but also a complete set of complementary acceleration software tools and libraries to support the development of medical technologies integrating AI.
The latest research report from GMI Research shows that the value of the healthcare market integrating AI technology was only around $10.4 billion in 2022, and is expected to reach $189.9 billion by 2030, with a high compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 43.7% during this period. GMI Research states that when analyzing highly complex medical data, AI can often execute tasks in a shorter time and at a lower cost, greatly optimizing the connections between patients, doctors, and hospital managers. They also predict that AI is expected to be fully applied in medical imaging and rapid diagnosis, drug discovery, medical surgery assistance, gene-level precision medicine, drug simulation screening, and protein structure prediction, significantly reducing the product innovation cycle and improving the accuracy of modern medicine while covering a larger range of patients in the same amount of time.
Digital health is expected to become the "center" of the global healthcare ecosystem. In their latest research report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. stated that after the conclusion of CES 2025, the market investment fervor for digital health platforms is expected to continue, with a focus on the deep integration of generative AI, monitoring systems, further integration of consumer health and medical technology, and chronic disease management. Meanwhile, business models and profit models are still evolving, which may lead to significant differences in adoption rates among different companies and market categories. Among the US stocks monitored by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., the most prominent companies include.Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. recommends a "buy" rating on Abbott Laboratories, a "neutral" rating on iRhythm, and a "buy" rating on Teladoc Health. They believe these companies are in a prime position to leverage the growth trends in digital health and consumer health sectors, as well as integrate generative AI into their core businesses.Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysis team believes that active investment in digital health platforms and the industry's innovative pace remains significant. The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) showcased hundreds of companies in the early stages of development in remote patient monitoring, telehealth, and behavior correction fields.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. states that mature market leaders in digital health, such as Abbott Laboratories, are also closing the gap between consumer health and medical technology. Dexcom has also achieved this through its partnership with Oura. At the International Consumer Electronics Show, Abbott Laboratories showcased its extensive diabetes management tools platform, including significant promotions around the Lingo platform, while Dexcom appeared in a panel discussion on artificial intelligence and the integration of generative AI with medical devices.
Although the infrastructure for supporting digital health is still not perfect, consumers' interest and investment in this type of health sector are clearly increasing. Healthcare companies have started launching generative AI services that are consumer-facing and available without a prescription. Interestingly, unlike the large-scale infrastructure resources needed for the enterprise side, the digital health sector directly targeting consumers does not require significant structural changes.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. anticipates that under the drive of generative AI, consumers interacting more frequently with their personal health through digital health technologies will become the most direct driver of digital health's popularization. In the future, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects that more digital health focusing on "AI + healthcare" will lead the transition from passive healthcare to proactive healthcare, but before that, corresponding adjustments need to be made to the incentive mechanisms of the healthcare system, providers, and patients.
Although digital health solutions deeply integrated with AI are favored and have great prospects, their commercial traction is relatively limited compared to the investment level. According to Rock Health statistics, in 2024, 497 digital health transactions raised approximately $10.1 billion in venture capital (measured in dollars and transaction volume, staying relatively flat year-over-year). This investment level is still far below the peak of 2021, which may reflect a balance between optimism about the long-term value proposition of the technology and poor market performance (the KDOCP Digital Health Index dropped by 45% compared to its peak in June 2021, while the S&P 500 index rose by 63% and the Russell 2000 index rose by 1%).
In the long term, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysis team believes that there is little dispute among investment institutions that digital health models will become a more important part of the global healthcare ecosystem. Technological advances, expanded reimbursement coverage, and the shift towards more proactive health management models will all promote growth in this field. However, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. believes that healthcare companies in the industry need to align with clear treatment goals to gain strong commercial momentum, and digital empowerment platforms with universal scenarios may face more challenges.
These four "AI + healthcare" leaders deserve investors' focus:
Abbott Laboratories
Abbott Laboratories is a leading global healthcare company founded in 1888 and headquartered in Illinois, USA. Abbott Laboratories is committed to improving the quality of life worldwide through innovative health products and services, spanning multiple business areas including nutrition, diagnostics, medical devices, and pharmaceuticals. In recent years, Abbott Laboratories has actively promoted the integration of AI + healthcare, optimizing its products and services through artificial intelligence technology to drive medical technology innovation. For example, Abbott Laboratories' cardiac monitoring devices and medical imaging technology are gradually integrating AI algorithms to improve the accuracy and speed of early diagnosis; Abbott Laboratories is currently leveraging generative AI technology to accelerate drug development processes.
Based on the P/E ratio of 23.5x derived from EPS Q5-Q8, the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. analysis team has set a target stock price of $132 for Abbott Laboratories in the next 12 months, rating it as a "buy." As of the Tuesday closing of the US stock market, Abbott Laboratories' stock price was at $116.79.
Key downside risks: ongoing litigation (pending MDL) and related potential liabilities; headwinds and competitive dynamics in the diabetes market; competition in the medical device sector; failure to achieve profit margin expansion goals.
iRhythm Technologies
iRhythm focuses on using advanced artificial intelligence technology to diagnose heart diseases, especially those related to arrhythmias. iRhythm's core innovation lies in combining traditional medical technologies (such as electrocardiograms) with modern generative artificial intelligence and big data analysis to provide an AI-driven remote healthcare solution. This solution allows patients to continuously monitor their heart health in their daily lives without frequent visits to a clinic. iRhythm aims to improve early screening and diagnosis of heart disease through AI-integrated digital healthcare technologies, enhancing medical efficiency and patient health management levels.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has set a target stock price of $91 for the company in the next 12 months, citing this price as its target.Based on a fundamental value of $89 (weighted at 85%) and a potential acquisition value of $107. The acquisition value is based on a TTM EV/Sales multiple of 6.25x (weighted at 15%, ranking it second on the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s list of potential acquisitions with a moderate likelihood of 15%-30%). Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. rates the fundamental value of $89 based on an EV/Sales multiple of 4.0x as "neutral". As of the closing of the US stock market on Tuesday, iRhythm Technologies' stock price closed at $108.71.The main upside risks to the stock price: The market growth rate of dynamic cardiac monitoring and testing exceeds the expected scenario of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.; The proportion of Long Term Care Monitoring (LTCM) testing to total Acute Care Monitoring (ACM) testing may be higher than Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s current forecast; Market share growth exceeds Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s current baseline scenario; Reimbursement and compensation situation is more favorable than expected. The "main downside risks" given by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. are that the above scenarios are all lower than Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s expectations.
Teladoc Health
Teladoc Health is a leading global virtual healthcare services company, founded in 2002 and headquartered in New York, USA. Teladoc's core business is to provide remote medical services through a digital platform, using digital diagnostic technology based on video calls and mobile applications to provide patients with health advice, diagnosis, treatment, and chronic disease management services. With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and big data technology, Teladoc is gradually incorporating AI technology into its services.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has a 12-month target price of $14 for Teladoc Health, with a "Buy" rating. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. bases this target price on an adjusted EBITDA expectation of 7.5x GSe Q5-Q8 and an implied 1.0x GSe Q5-Q8 sales. As of the closing of the US stock market on Tuesday, Teladoc Health's stock price closed at $9.50.
The main downside risks to the stock price: BetterHelp faces long delays in obtaining insurance coverage; New participants continue to enter the virtual care field, especially in chronic disease care; DTC advertising costs remain under pressure, which may negatively impact BetterHelp's revenue and adjusted EBITDA forecast; International markets do not develop at the speed expected by Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
Tempus AI
According to congressional disclosure forms, Congresswoman Pelosi, representing California's 11th district, purchased shares of the medical technology company Tempus AI (TEM.US) focused on "artificial intelligence + healthcare" at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, with different purchase dates and a cumulative purchase value ranging from $50,001 to $100,000.
Tempus AI is a company focused on technology-driven healthcare, with significant influence in cancer treatment and personalized medical technology. The company's technology platform combines generative artificial intelligence (generative AI), machine learning (ML), genomics, bioinformatics, and clinical data analysis to drive advancements in precision medicine. Tempus AI focuses on combining genomic data with clinical data, using artificial intelligence and big data analysis to provide personalized treatment plans.