Crowd wisdom consulting: it is expected that panel prices will enter an upward trend in the first quarter, and precautions should be taken to prevent demand overdraft risks in the second quarter.

The Group Wisdom Consulting article states that in 2024, the global LCD TV panel market continues to recover, with panel manufacturers' shipping levels and profit performance both showing promise. The panel shipment area continues to grow, indicating a healthy market development. Stable profitability is the common goal of panel manufacturers in 2025. Driven by policies such as China's continuation of subsidies and increased tariffs in North America, brand purchasing strategies in the first quarter have been active, leading to a strong demand for global LCD TV panels. Group Wisdom Consulting believes that the external driving force of policy stimulation on demand may gradually weaken, and precautions should be taken in the second quarter to prevent the risk of demand overextension, but structural upgrades are expected to become a positive internal driving force for the TV market. Panel shipment: continuous growth in area is the internal driving force behind market development. In 2025 and the medium to long term, the focus of global LCD TV panel shipments will continue to be on the continuous growth of area. In 2024, the number and area of TV panel shipments doubled, and it is expected that the momentum of growth in the number of global TV panel shipments in 2025 will be difficult to sustain, but the area is expected to continue to grow: 1. The favorable effects of macroeconomic policies have been superimposed at the beginning of the year, supporting the "red envelope" of demand in the first half of the year. Two recent events that have impacted brand stocking rhythms, namely the increase in tariffs in the United States and the extension of energy efficiency subsidies in China. The change in tariff strategy has accelerated the stocking pace of top brands in North America in order to minimize the cost range of tariff radiation as much as possible. At the same time, the continuation of energy efficiency subsidies policy in the new year stabilizes short-term demand, but the weakening long-term effects of the policy may lead to overextension of demand in the second half of the year. Therefore, demand is relatively strong in the first half of the year. 2. Panel prices have entered an upward cycle, driven by the demand for bottoming out and stocking in the first quarter. As mentioned above, demand is good in the first half of the year, especially in the first quarter, when demand for large sizes is strong, driving a shift in supply and demand towards tight balance and an increase in panel prices. In this context, the demand for brands to stock up at low prices is one of the drivers of demand improvement. 3. The health of the television industry chain inventory at the beginning of the year is a prerequisite for the release of brand stocking demand. On the one hand, panel manufacturers adhere to demand-oriented production, reducing the risk of inventory redundancy in the industry chain from the source. On the other hand, under policy support, integrated machine and channel manufacturers actively promote sales, leading to a significant decrease in downstream inventory. Data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell) shows that the global TV industry chain inventory remains healthy at the beginning of 2025. 4. Large size is the core engine of area growth. From the 2025 BP plan, it can be seen that 65" & 75" & 80"+ are the main sizes that panel manufacturers are competing to grow. In particular, the 80"+ track, the total BP plan of each panel manufacturer will exceed 10 million for the first time in 2025. Data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell) predicts that the average size of LCD TV panels shipped globally in 2024 is 51.4 inches, and is expected to exceed 52 inches in 2025, an increase of 1.3 inches. According to data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell), in 2024, the global LCD TV panel shipments reached 241 million pieces, a significant increase of 4.2% year-on-year, and the shipment area increased by 7.5% year-on-year; it is expected that the number of shipments in 2025 will drop to 238 million, a slight decrease of 1.1% compared to the previous year, but the shipment area is expected to increase by 4.4% due to the trend of large sizes. In 2025, the upgrading of TV panel technology remains slow, with high refresh rate and OLED being the main growth points for TV panel technology. TV demand in the consumer electronics category lacks stickiness, overall technology development is slow, and high refresh rate and OLED maintain growth, while 8K remains limited. 1. The penetration rate of high refresh rates increases as the specifications of high refresh rates simultaneously increase, which is the main feature of high refresh rate shipments in 2025. It is expected that high refresh rate panel shipments in 2025 will continue to grow rapidly, and the specifications of high refresh rates will also break through. In addition to 120Hz/144Hz, panel manufacturers will further increase the refresh rate to 165Hz and above, with some manufacturers already achieving mass production of 165Hz panels. According to data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell), the penetration rate of high refresh rate TV panels continues to increase, and is expected to reach 12.4% in 2025. 2. In 2025, OLED TV panel shipments are slowly recovering. After active promotion from industry upstream and downstream, OLED shipments experienced a growth recovery in 2024 and is expected to continue in 2025. However, due to the relatively sluggish demand for OLED TV terminals, and the fact that OLED TV manufacturers and panel manufacturers are still in a loss-making situation, the growth rate in 2025 is relatively limited. According to data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell), the penetration rate of OLED TV panel shipments is expected to increase slightly to 2.8% in 2025. 3. Cost and scale have not formed a positive cycle of stimulation, and 8K TV panel shipments are expected to remain at a low level in the long term. The biggest obstacle to the development of 8K TV panels is their relatively high cost, and although leading panel manufacturers are actively reducing costs, the ultimate effect is minimal. Data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell) predicts that the overall penetration rate of 8K TV panels will remain stable at 0.1% in 2025. Supply and demand, and prices: in the first quarter, the supply and demand for TV panels tend to be tight, and precautions should be taken to prevent the risk of demand overextension in the second quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2025, the supply and demand environment of the TV panel market tends to be tight. From the demand perspective, with the stimulus of macroeconomic policies, brand purchasing demand remains strong. Chinese brands, supported by the continuation of national subsidies, maintain relatively stable purchasing demand, while top brands move their stocking demand forward in anticipation of an increase in tariffs, coupled with relatively healthy channel and brand inventories. From the supply perspective, although the control of production capacity by top panel manufacturers has loosened, overall they still adhere to demand-oriented production. In the second quarter of 2025, the risk of demand overextension due to forward movement of demand increases uncertainty in the supply and demand, which is a key factor affecting the second quarter. Data from Group Wisdom Consulting (Sigmaintell) "Supply and Demand Model" calculations (based on area) show that the supply-demand ratio of the global LCD TV panel market in the first quarter of 2025 is 4.6%, indicating a tight supply-demand situation; it is expected that the supply-demand ratio in the second quarter will be 6.2%, shifting towards loose. Based on this, it is expected that from the first quarter, the video...The price of boards is entering an upward trend, but we need to be cautious of price fluctuations risks from weakening demand in the second quarter."Je suis fatigu de cette situation." "I am tired of this situation."