Middle Finger Research: The cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices nationwide in the fourth quarter of 2024 narrowed, and the prices in first-tier cities stabilized significantly.

According to the data monitoring of the China Index Research Institute, in the fourth quarter of 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand housing prices in various tiers of cities has narrowed, with prices in first-tier cities stabilizing significantly. In 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand residential prices in first-tier cities was 6.09%. After the September 26th policy, prices in first-tier cities stabilized significantly, with a cumulative decline of 0.33% in the fourth quarter, a significant narrowing of 1.97 percentage points from the third quarter. The month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou was between 0.1% and 0.3%, with a noticeable narrowing of the price decline compared to before. The housing prices in Shenzhen showed a continuous upward trend in November and December. In 2024, the cumulative decline in second-hand residential prices in second-tier cities was 7.63%, with a cumulative decline of 1.98% in the fourth quarter, narrowing by 0.22 percentage points from the third quarter. Within the tiers, second-hand housing prices in Chengdu rose for two consecutive months. In 2024, representative cities in the third and fourth tiers saw a cumulative price decline of 7.35%, with a 1.94% decline in housing prices in the fourth quarter, narrowing by 0.05 percentage points from the third quarter. Source: China Index Research Institute (CREIS) Data In December 2024, the average price of second-hand housing in one hundred cities was 14,203 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decline of 0.53% and a year-on-year decline of 7.26%. The average price of new housing in one hundred cities was 16,654 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month structural increase of 0.37% in December, and a year-on-year increase of 2.68% driven by the entry of some high-quality improvement projects into the market. The average rent for residential properties in 50 cities nationwide was 35.4 yuan per square meter per month, with a month-on-month decline of 0.55% and a year-on-year decline of 3.25%. December is the off-peak season for housing leasing, with a slight month-on-month decline in average rent in key cities. Source: China Index Research Institute (CREIS) Data According to the China Real Estate Index System's price index for one hundred cities, in December 2024, the average price of second-hand housing in one hundred cities fell by 0.53% compared to the previous month, with a slight narrowing of the decline; the year-on-year decline was 7.26%. In December, the average price of second-hand housing in the top ten cities decreased by 0.19% month-on-month, unchanged from the previous month; the year-on-year decline was 6.75%, a narrowing of 0.40 percentage points from the previous month. Looking at various cities, in December, the month-on-month changes in the prices of second-hand housing in Chengdu and Shenzhen were 0.10% and 0.05% respectively, both having risen for two consecutive months. Nanjing saw the largest month-on-month decline in December, at 0.59%; Hangzhou, Wuhan, and Tianjin had declines of 0.41%, 0.38%, and 0.35% respectively; Guangzhou, Shanghai, Beijing, and Chongqing (central urban area) had month-on-month declines between 0.1% and 0.3%. In terms of year-on-year changes, Wuhan and Nanjing both saw declines of over 10% in December, at 10.33% and 10.00% respectively; Beijing, Chongqing (central urban area), and Hangzhou had year-on-year declines between 7% and 8%; Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou, and Chengdu had year-on-year declines between 5% and 7%. Source: China Index Research Institute (CREIS) Data Source: China Index Research Institute (CREIS) Data