Trump 2.0 impacts the world! 12 institutions predict the trends of stocks, bonds, real estate, currency, and gold.
21/01/2025
GMT Eight
On the 20th local time, Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, starting his second presidential term.
Many financial institutions at home and abroad believe that Trump's policies will have a profound impact on the global financial market after he takes office as president again.
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, HSBC, UBS, and other institutions believe that Trump's tax, trade, and other policies will have varying degrees of impact on the US and global economic growth, market stability, volatility, and concerns about fiscal deficits and market confidence.
Regarding the trends of the RMB and the US dollar, Goldman Sachs and Citibank predict that the US dollar may appreciate, while JP Morgan says it depends on US-China trade and the US economy.
As for A shares, CITIC SEC and Huatai both believe that they will be affected in the short term, but in the long run, China's economic fundamentals and policies will support stable growth.
In the US stock market, real estate market, gold, virtual currencies, and other markets, various institutions have analyzed their trends in the short and long term.
Overall, specific market trends still need to be judged in conjunction with the actual policy implementation and the global economic situation.
US Dollar
Goldman Sachs: Expects the US dollar to appreciate due to trade policies and fiscal stimulus.
JP Morgan: Believes that the trends of the RMB and the US dollar will depend on the development of US-China trade relations and the US economic situation.
A shares
CITIC SEC: Expects A shares to be affected by Trump's policies in the short term, but in the long term, China's economic fundamentals and policy support will drive market stabilizing growth.
Huatai: Believes that Trumps policies may cause short-term fluctuations in A shares, but in the long term, investment value in the Chinese market will remain.
US stocks
Morgan Stanley: Expects US stocks to be boosted by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on policy implementation and the US economic situation.
UBS: Believes that Trump's policies may push up US stocks in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on the sustainability of the policies and market reaction.
Goldman Sachs: Trump's policies, including tax cuts and deregulation, are expected to stimulate economic growth and corporate profits, thereby boosting the stock market. However, the uncertainty of Trump's policies may have a negative impact on the market, especially in terms of trade policy.
Bonds
Citibank: With Trump taking office, the US dollar will rise and the bond market will see sell-offs. Trumps victory may trigger changes in international capital flows, affecting the global bond market.
Bond King Gross: Trump's return to the White House will exacerbate the expanding US deficit, having a "destructive" impact on the bond market.
Real estate market
Citibank: Expects the US real estate market to be boosted by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on economic conditions and interest rates.
CICC: Believes that the Chinese real estate market will be affected by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on domestic economic policies and market demand.
Gold
Standard Chartered Bank: Expects gold to be affected by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on the global economic situation and the demand for safe havens.
HSBC: Believes that Trump's policies may push up gold prices in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on the global economic situation and monetary policies.
Virtual currency
Credit Suisse: Expects virtual currencies to be affected by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on technological development and regulatory policies.
Deutsche Bank: Trump's policies may impact the virtual currency market in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on technological innovations and market acceptance.
Global economy
Nomura Securities: Expects global financial markets to be affected by Trump's policies in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on global economic conditions and policy implementation.
Credit Suisse: Believes that Trump's policies may impact global financial markets in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on global economic conditions and policy implementation.
Morgan Stanley: Trump's policies may increase market volatility. Trump's tax cuts may stimulate economic growth in the short term, but in the long run, they may lead to an expansion of fiscal deficits, affecting market confidence. In addition, Trump's trade policies may also increase market uncertainty.
HSBC: Analysts at HSBC believe that Trump's tax cuts may stimulate US economic growth, leading to global economic recovery. However, HSBC also warns that Trump's trade policies may exacerbate global trade frictions, affecting market stability.