Sinolink: TikTok stops serving in the US, pay attention to traffic changes and content opportunities on platforms like Little Red Book.

Sinolink issued a research report stating that TikTok stopped services in the US, and the download volume of Xiaohongshu (RED) topped the overseas free charts. The 24-year performance forecast has been released, with the Spring Festival box office approaching. Focus on content sectors with fundamental support, publishing sectors with strong defensive attributes and continued tax incentives, and progress in AI integration. Optimistic about gaming and film and television targets on the content side; in publishing, suggest focusing on undervalued stocks and actively deploying AI and educational targets. Keep an eye on the progress of TikTok's suspension of services in the US, changes in traffic on platforms like Xiaohongshu, and the implementation of AI applications. Sinolink's main points are as follows: 1) Film and Television: Wanda Film Holding, Hengdian Entertainment and other cinema companies have released their 24-year performance forecasts, with high-quality films expected for the 25-year Spring Festival season. Box office performance is expected to reach a turning point, pay attention to opportunities in the cinema sector. According to announcements from companies such as Wanda Film Holding and Hengdian Entertainment, due to a significant decrease in box office revenue in 24, the company's cinema business was under pressure and incurred some losses; looking ahead to 25, the first major box office period, the Spring Festival season, has already seen 6 films scheduled for release, including "Operation Red Sea", "Detective Chinatown 3", "Ne Zha: Reborn", "Fengshen Part 2", "The Heroic Legend of Eagle Shooting" and "Boonie Bears: The Wild Life", all of which are IP films. The trend of improving box office performance is promising. Keep an eye on leading cinema companies, filmmakers behind the films and box office performance during the Spring Festival season. 2) Gaming: Focus on targets with fundamental support and low valuations For gaming companies with a market value of over 15 billion, the net profit corresponding to 25 is generally less than 15 times the PE, lower than the valuation median; A-share gaming companies have initiated product cycles, with G-bits Network Technology launching "The Legend of Shushan", "Echoes of the Supernatural" and "Genesis of the Royal Capital" as well as self-developed game "Last Sword Immortal". Perfect World's "Jade Dynasty World Online" generated over 400 million yuan in revenue in the first 30 days, Beijing Ultrapower Software's 2 new games "Stellar Sanctuary" and "Next Agers" have entered commercial testing overseas, Giant Network Group's "Primitive Journey" was officially launched on January 10, and Kingnet Network announced 22 reserved games at the 2025 annual product launch event held on January 13. At this point, it is recommended to focus on gaming targets with low valuations and strong fundamentals for 25. 3) Theme Market: i) Recently, Xiaohongshu's download volume topped the free charts in multiple overseas countries. Xiaohongshu-related stocks have seen significant increases, and Xiaohongshu has become one of the platforms for cultural exchange. Marketing and MCN agencies are expected to benefit. Currently, TikTok has been removed from the Apple and Google app stores in the US, so pay attention to future developments. ii) AI: Optimistic about the accelerated implementation of AI applications in 25. OpenAI released Tasks, allowing ChatGPT to function more like a traditional digital assistant, reminding users of future tasks, Vidu released version 2.0, with video generation taking only 10 seconds, resulting in more stable video frames and better consistency; although DeepSeek version 01 has not been officially released, it has already ranked in the top three in code benchmark testing LiveCodeBench, with performance comparable to OpenAI's mid-range inference settings. Pay attention to the implementation of AI, focusing on "Chat" type products and algorithm-based applications/tools, as well as changes in AI companionship, AI toys, AI tools, and the progress of AI-generated videos. 4) Publishing: With the continuation of tax incentives, the net profit attributable to parent company after 25 is expected to be revised upwards for related companies. Currently, the stocks in the publishing sector with a dividend yield of over 4% have a net profit corresponding to 25 (before considering the impact of tax rate adjustments) at around 10-16 times PE, leaving room for further increase. Regarding the impact of the extension of tax incentives on the financial statements, Mango Excellent Media has partially explained its 24 performance forecast, stating that its cultural enterprises can enjoy tax exemption from 24 to 27. The company had already paid 260 million in corporate income tax in the first three quarters of 24, and is expected to receive a full refund. From 2025 to 27, the exemption of corporate income tax will have a positive impact on the company's net profit attributable to parent company. Due to changes in the corporate income tax policy, the company needs to write back 45 million in deferred tax assets recognized in 23, resulting in a total net write-back of 450 million in deferred tax assets. Additionally, many publishing targets have invested in AI and education, and are expected to benefit from the development and implementation of AI. Industry News: On January 17, WeChat added a gift-giving function. In personal chats with friends, the "Gifts" function is currently undergoing small-scale testing, alongside red packets, allowing users to send gifts at any time. On the evening of January 18 local time, TikTok notified its US users that due to the pending US ban, the TikTok app will temporarily stop services to users starting on the 19th. Risk warning: Risks of content launch and performance falling short of expectations; risks of macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations; risks of AI technology iterations and applications falling short of expectations; risks of policy and regulatory changes.