On the eve of Trump's return, traders increased their bets on a strong dollar to the highest level since 2019.

The footsteps of Donald Trump returning to the White House are approaching. According to data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday and compiled by Bloomberg, as of January 14, the total amount of bets held by derivatives traders is about $34.6 billion, which will benefit from further strengthening of the dollar. This is an increase of nearly $1 billion from last week and is the highest level since 2019. Senior forex trader and Managing Director of BK Asset Management, Kathy Lien, stated in an interview before the data was released, "They are looking for buying opportunities," and indicated that Trump's policy promises "determine traders' overall bias." Since Trump won the presidential election, bullish bets on the dollar and the value of the dollar itself have risen. Due to the potential for Trump to implement tariffs and policies that could lead to higher inflation, as well as skepticism about future easing measures by the Fed this year, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen by about 5% since the election. The data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows a significant increase in bearish bets on currencies such as the Canadian dollar and the euro while being bullish on the dollar. As of January 14, non-commercial traders held approximately $11.6 billion in bearish positions on the Canadian loonie, the highest among the 10 major currencies tracked by the CFTC. The data also shows that these traders were bearish on the euro with approximately $7.8 billion. Of course, if the actions of the Trump administration in the first few weeks of the new term regarding tariffs are not as aggressive as expected, it increases the possibility of position adjustments. US Bank forex strategists including Adarsh Sinha and Michalis Rousakis wrote in a report to clients on Friday, "Positions are now viewed as the biggest headwind for the dollar, which is our common concern." "Compared to history, the dollar's bullish performance is outstanding, especially in the past year."