Trump plans to sanction Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, global oil prices may face dramatic changes.

According to sources familiar with the matter, advisors to US President-elect Trump are developing a comprehensive sanction plan to push for a diplomatic agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the coming months, while also putting pressure on Iran and Venezuela. Previously, the outgoing Biden administration imposed the most disruptive sanctions on Russian oil trade to date. Given Trump's promise to quickly end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the Biden administration's move has raised questions about how he views these measures. The Trump team is considering two options. One is that if the incoming Trump administration believes a solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict is in sight, some goodwill measures - such as benefiting sanctioned Russian oil producers - may help push for a peace agreement. The other option is to intensify pressure on top of existing sanctions to increase influence. Trump's final decision is crucial to the global oil market. Since the Biden administration announced the latest sanctions on Russian oil trade, Brent crude oil futures have risen by nearly $5 per barrel. Some analysts predict that oil prices will further increase. Sources said that the Trump team's strategic planning is still in the early stages, and the final decision will depend on Trump himself. Last week, Trump said he was arranging a meeting with Russian President Putin, increasing the likelihood of an imminent end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sources pointed out that the individuals involved in formulating the strategy include some of Trump's nominated cabinet members, as well as members of the previous Trump administration. These advisors will ultimately face the same issues as the Biden administration, namely how to avoid major supply disruptions and price increases in the oil market when imposing extensive sanctions on the world's third-largest oil-producing country. Another challenge is finding the right balance between using economic tools and maintaining the US dollar as the global reserve currency. Sources said that for the Trump team, a more aggressive combination of policies towards Russia may require greater secondary sanctions on oil trade, punishing European shipping companies and Asian buyers. Another possible approach is to intervene more aggressively with tankers transporting Russian oil through key chokepoints in Denmark and Turkey. Additionally, the Trump team is also evaluating policy choices towards Iran and Venezuela. Sources said that Trump's main advisors generally believe in restoring a strategy of maximum pressure on Iran, starting with a comprehensive set of sanctions targeting major companies in the Iranian oil industry, possibly as early as February. Similar measures during Trump's first term significantly reduced Iran's oil exports. The situation in Venezuela is more complex. The US refuses to recognize the election results in Venezuela and is trying to pressure the government through sanctions. On January 11, the US State Department announced visa restrictions and other sanctions against officials and allies of the Maduro government, while also increasing the reward for Maduro from $15 million to $25 million. However, at the same time, US oil companies such as Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) are still operating in Venezuela. Biden administration intensifies sanctions against Russia before handing over power On January 10, local time, Biden announced a new round of sanctions on the Russian economy, targeting the country's two largest oil companies and 183 oil tankers. White House officials said these sanctions were the most severe measures to date against Russia's energy sector, aimed at cutting off Russia's main source of funds for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The new measures also include blockades on multiple energy-related entities and restrictions on Russia's ability to earn dollars through energy exports. On January 15, the Biden administration added sanctions to about a hundred Russian financial, energy, and defense entities that had already been sanctioned by the US. According to relevant laws, if the Trump administration wants to lift the sanctions on these entities by the Biden administration, it must notify Congress, which then has the right to intervene within 30 days. Both houses of Congress only need to pass relevant bills to prevent the new government from easing sanctions on Russian entities. Reports indicate that the latest sanctions imposed by the Biden administration also mean that if the Trump administration does not fully enforce existing sanctions on Russia, it may trigger "mandatory" secondary sanctions on companies willing to assist these entities. A senior official at the US Treasury Department said the Biden administration's measures send a signal to "the entire ecosystem of sanctions evasion," advising against taking any risks in dealing with any entities on the blacklist. Some media outlets have reported that the Biden administration's move before the transfer of power is to "guard against Trump," using Congress to obstruct any potential easing of sanctions on Russia after Trump takes office.