J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Optimistic about the prospects of the U.S. stock market in 2025, bullish on the performance of the financial and communication sectors.

Kaixin Wealth Management Hong Kong financial advisor Lin Zhangjie said that it is expected that the overall performance of the US stock market will be good by 2025, but due to various unstable factors, the volatility is also expected to be high. He said that from the current situation, the market is in a relatively healthy position, with the S&P 500 index stable above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and it is expected that the average growth of the S&P 500 index this year will be 5.3%. At the same time, he believes that the financial sector will still benefit from the high interest rate environment, and he is more optimistic about the financial and communication sectors, while non-essential consumer goods sectors may lag behind the market. The raw materials sector recorded negative growth in 2024, indicating weak demand for large commodities, and caution is needed in related sector investments. Kaixin Wealth Management Hong Kong financial advisor Guo Mingshen pointed out that bonds will have a significant impact on the performance of the stock market this year, especially if inflation remains high and unstable. In the second half of 2024, the rolling one-year correlation value between the S&P 500 index and the 10-year Treasury bond yield rose to nearly zero, which is undoubtedly positive news for the stock market. If this situation continues into 2025, the market's relationship with inflation may return to a favorable position. However, if inflation volatility heats up again (especially after the implementation of tariffs and labor policies), stocks may face more risks deriving from bonds. Although the bank remains optimistic about the global and US market prospects this year, investors also need to be vigilant against related risks in the face of the overlapping impact of various policies. Guo Mingshen also believes that the current mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are relatively cheap, and policy support is expected to be a future investment theme.