OPEC expects that in 2026, there will be a "supply shortage" of oil, with demand increasing by a "strong" 1.4 million barrels per day.

In its first detailed assessment for 2026, OPEC predicted that driven by the markets in India and China, oil demand will continue to increase steadily. The organization stated in a monthly report on Wednesday that by 2026, global oil consumption will grow "strongly" by 1.4 million barrels per day, in line with this year's expected growth rate and surpassing supply growth expectations. In theory, this should allow Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners to resume production cuts and eventually restore production levels of around 2 million barrels per day in the next two years. However, signs of slowing economic growth in some markets, as well as OPEC's failure to accurately predict demand last year, have weakened the organization's optimistic outlook. Earlier on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also stated in its monthly report that due to stronger demand and new risks facing the supply side, the global oil market is facing less surplus this year than previously expected. The agency noted that global oil stocks will increase by 725,000 barrels per day in 2025, instead of the previously forecasted 950,000 barrels per day, and slightly raised global consumption forecasts for 2024 and 2025. The OPEC Secretariat's forecast at the beginning of 2024 was much higher than that of other industry institutions, and after six consecutive months of downward revisions, OPEC was forced to lower its expectations by 47%. OPEC member countries have little confidence in the Secretariat's optimistic assessment and have repeatedly chosen to postpone plans to restart production. In recent years, OPEC+ has been suspending supplies to support oil prices. The alliance currently plans to gradually increase production starting in April, with an increase of 120,000 barrels per day per month, but may assess whether to continue with this plan in early March. If OPEC+ proceeds with the planned gradual production recovery in the second quarter, this year's global oversupply of oil may be more severe than expected. Market observers such as the International Energy Agency, JPMorgan Chase, and Citigroup expect that even if OPEC+ abandons its production increase plans, there will still be an oversupply of oil globally this year. However, the prospect of comprehensive new sanctions by the US against Russia and potential new restrictions on Iran by the incoming Trump administration could disrupt this outlook. The International Energy Agency mentioned earlier on Wednesday that the comprehensive new sanctions announced last week by the Biden administration could "severely disrupt Russia's oil supply and distribution chains," and if the incoming Trump administration fulfills its promises for a tougher stance, Iran's oil exports could also be restricted. The agency added that it is too early to predict the specific size of potential losses now, but if the losses are significant enough, this could prompt other OPEC+ member countries to continue with their production recovery plans. The main members of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee of OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on February 3 to review the market and finalize plans for the second quarter in the following weeks. OPEC's report predicts that by 2026, China's oil consumption will increase by 270,000 barrels per day, a growth of 1.6%. India will also increase by 270,000 barrels per day, or 4.7%. However, last year, China's crude oil imports decreased again, and industry officials speculate that as China shifts towards electric vehicles, its oil demand may soon stop growing. The US Energy Information Administration forecasted on Tuesday in its first outlook for 2026 that there will be an expansion of oil surplus. With OPEC+ resuming production and production increasing in the United States, Canada, and Guyana, next year's global market is expected to see a surplus of 800,000 barrels per day.