GF SEC: High certainty of large wind power installations in 2025 under the background of high biddings.

GF SEC released a research report stating that according to the performance display materials of Goldwind Science & Technology, a total of 119.1GW of wind power units were tendered domestically in the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 93% year-on-year, with onshore wind tendered at 111.5GW, an increase of 101% year-on-year, and offshore wind tendered at 7.6GW, an increase of 25% year-on-year. According to the January 11th push from Wind Sector Energy's public account, based on CWEA's forecast, the annual new installed capacity of wind power in China in 2025 is expected to be around 105-115GW, with onshore new capacity of around 95-100GW and offshore new capacity of around 10-15GW. The year 2025 is expected to be a peak year for installations, with the related industry chain expected to benefit. Continued optimism for offshore wind power, significant growth in overseas orders for domestic complete machine manufacturers Recently, there have been continuous positive developments in offshore wind power. According to the January 9th push from Wind Sector Energy's public account, the "Major Project List for 2025 in Jiangsu Province" includes Yancheng Guoxin Offshore Wind Power, Yancheng Three Gorges Offshore Wind Power, and Yancheng Longyuan Offshore Wind Power. According to the January 11th push from Wind Sector Energy's public account, the "Major Project List for 2025 in Shandong Province" includes 3 offshore wind power projects, 9 onshore wind power projects, and 2 wind power industry chain manufacturing-related projects. Considering the previous 7.65GW second batch of competitive allocation in Jiangsu, the 21.5GW competitive allocation for offshore wind power in Guangdong (7GW in provincial waters), the 2.4GW competitive allocation for offshore wind power in Fujian, and potential deep-sea demonstration projects, reserve projects ensure the continuity of offshore wind power. According to the statistics of the Daily Wind Power public account, in 2024, a total of eight complete machine manufacturers obtained overseas orders in the overseas market, with a total of 28.06GW in international orders, showing significant growth. Focus on profit recovery brought by high installation background According to GF SEC's statistics, in recent years, the wind power industry chain has undergone a large-scale capital expenditure, corresponding to a significant decrease in asset return rates. The ROE and ROA of the entire industry have basically been on a downward trend after reaching their peak in the year of rapid installation in 2020-2021. The entire industry clearly entered a downward period of capital expenditure in 2024. Revitalizing existing assets and increasing the return on existing assets are key priorities for all companies. The peak year for installations is expected to drive an increase in asset return rates and bring about a certain degree of profit recovery. Investment recommendations Focus on the offshore wind power industry chain. Pay attention to Jiangsu Haili Wind Power Equipment Technology (301155.SZ), a leading company in offshore towers/pile foundations, rooted in Jiangsu and gradually expanding nationwide with key layouts in Shandong and Hainan. Focus on strong alpha companies. Recommend Sany Renewable Energy (688349.SH), which has a significantly increasing market share, evident cost advantages, and is gradually expanding into offshore and overseas markets; recommend Ficont Industry (Beijing) (605305.SH), a leading player in wind power high-altitude operations with a leading market share and upgraded products that can effectively counter "deflation," maintaining high export growth. Keep an eye on Zhuzhou Times New Material Technology (600458.SH), Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearing (300850.SZ), Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables (603606.SH), Jinlei Technology (300443.SZ), etc. Risk warning Installation falls short of expectations, policy support falls short of expectations, profit recovery falls short of expectations, overseas market expansion falls short of expectations.