Sanctions fears combined with a decline in US oil inventories, causing US oil prices to stop falling and rise again, while Brent oil returns above $80.
15/01/2025
GMT Eight
After experiencing the largest drop in more than a month, oil prices have slightly rebounded. The reason is that the impact of the US sanctions on Russian oil exports continues, and a industry report indicates that US oil inventories have decreased.
Data shows that on Wednesday, WTI crude oil futures prices rose to $78 per barrel, while Brent crude oil returned above $80 per barrel. On Tuesday, WTI crude oil fell 1.7% due to expectations of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, and Brent crude oil closed below $80 per barrel. According to a document, the American Petroleum Institute stated that crude oil inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels last week. If confirmed by government data later on Wednesday, this would be the eighth consecutive decline.
The impact of the latest US sanctions is affecting the entire market. With countries including India stating that they will ban sanctioned oil tankers, more buyers of Russian oil are turning to other OPEC+ supply countries. In China, state-owned oil companies and large private refining companies have been stocking up on crude oil from the Middle East and other regions in preparation for supply interruptions. Freight costs have soared, and the US physical pricing model has also changed.
This year, crude oil prices have been strong, as the colder winter in the northern hemisphere has led to an increase in heating demand, coupled with steady declines in US inventories, and the latest US sanctions have further boosted oil prices. The early rise goes against the general market expectations. Previously, it was widely expected that due to oversupply, oil prices would be in crisis by 2025, leading to a global oversupply of oil.
In addition to the turmoil caused by the US sanctions, traders are also weighing the impact of US President-elect Trump's second term in the White House, including the tariff threats that could potentially put Canadian oil in a difficult position. Ahead of the inauguration on January 20, the discount of Canadian heavy crude oil to WTI has been widening.
On Wednesday, with OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) releasing monthly outlooks, the prospects of supply and demand balance in the market will be the focus of attention. On Tuesday, the latest report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that a larger scale of oversupply is expected by 2025.