Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | State Council publishes important document! Enriching the supply of inbound tourism products. It is expected that the demand for outbound travel will be released during the Spring Festival (with concept stocks).

Recently, the General Office of the State Council issued "Several Measures to Further Cultivate New Growth Points and Prosper Cultural and Tourism Consumption", proposing 18 specific measures in 6 aspects. Among them, it mentioned optimizing the consumption environment. Optimizing inbound tourism policies, making full use of existing transit visa-free policies and regional entry visa-free policies, enriching inbound tourism product supply, launching the "Hello, China!" national tourism image promotion, optimizing departure tax refund services, and promoting the "buy now, refund now" measure. Haitong pointed out that with the continuous expansion of the "visa-free circle", the high growth of inbound tourism may become a highlight of the 2025 Spring Festival tourism market. The booking volume on OTA platforms has significantly increased, considering that in 2025, New Year's Day falls on only one day and the release of the dividends of the entry visa-free policy for foreigners, travel demand is expected to be concentrated during the Spring Festival. According to a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on January 8, Li Chunlin, Deputy Director of the National Development and Reform Commission, introduced that this year's Spring Festival travel rush will start from January 14 and end on February 22, lasting 40 days. In terms of the overall scale, according to estimates from transportation and other departments, the total cross-regional population movement in the whole of society will reach 9 billion, and railway and civil aviation passenger traffic are expected to exceed 510 million and 90 million respectively, setting historical records. In terms of railways, the overall passenger flow during the Spring Festival travel rush is expected to grow steadily, and the total number of passengers carried on the national railways is expected to exceed 5.1 billion, an average of 12.75 million passengers per day, an increase of 5.5% compared to the 2024 Spring Festival travel rush. On the road side, according to the "2025 Spring Festival Tourism Market Forecast Report" released by TongchengTravel, during the Spring Festival, domestic car rental orders increased by 240% compared to 2019; overseas car rental also showed a significant increase, with order volume doubling. In terms of air travel, according to data from the Flight Manager public account, the number of civil aviation passengers during the 2025 Spring Festival is expected to be around 92.52 million, with a daily average of 2.313 million, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%; the daily average capacity (number of seats) is about 2.798 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%. The average price of economy class on domestic routes decreased by 2.2% year-on-year. With the continuous expansion of the "visa-free circle", the high growth of inbound tourism may become a major highlight of the 2025 Spring Festival tourism market. OTA platform booking volume has significantly increased. According to data from TongchengTravel, during the Spring Festival holiday, the travel distance of domestic tourists increased by 43% compared to the previous year's Spring Festival; in terms of outbound travel, short-haul routes to Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia were popular, with average ticket and hotel prices in Hong Kong, China decreasing by 10-20% from last year's Spring Festival, and pre-orders increasing by about 73%. Inbound travel saw a 203% increase in orders, with South Korea seeing a 452% increase in inbound travel bookings. TongchengTravel data shows that the peak of railway passenger flow before the Spring Festival is expected to be on January 27, and the peak of return flow is expected to be from February 2 to February 5, with passenger flow accounting for 13% of the total Spring Festival passenger flow, and the daily passenger flow is nearly 30% higher than the average level of the Spring Festival. The average price of international flight tickets during peak hours is close to 4000 yuan, with prices rising by nearly 20%. According to data from Qunar, during the Spring Festival period, the volume of international flight and hotel bookings on Qunar increased by more than twice compared to the previous year, with an additional 157 cities being added as destinations for travelers compared to 2024. Among them, seeking warmth, seaside views, snow appreciation, and light chasing are the main trends. Harbin, the top destination for ice and snow tourism, remains popular, ranking fifth with a 32% increase in travel bookings. Cold-escape cities like Kunming, Fuzhou, and Xiamen saw a 18%, 30%, and 16% increase in bookings compared to last year's Spring Festival. Destinations like Mohe, Altay, Hemu, and Xilinhot saw increases of 17%, 67%, 62%, and 197% in bookings. At the same time, prices of airline tickets and hotels in many places have decreased, making off-the-beaten-path routes a new choice for outbound travel. Many places have reduced prices for airline tickets and hotels. According to the "2025 Spring Festival Tourism Market Forecast Report" released by TongchengTravel, short-haul outbound routes to Hong Kong, Macau, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia were popular, and long-haul European destinations like the UK, Spain, Italy, France, and Iceland were also popular among travelers, with increases of 56%, 74%, 50%, 49%, and 108% respectively. According to data from Hangzhou Daily citing Qunar, outbound destinations with rapid growth in travel bookings include Siem Reap in Cambodia, Nagoya in Japan, Budapest in Hungary, Hanoi in Vietnam, and Sapporo in Japan, all showing increases of more than 2 times; destinations like India, South Africa, Mexico, Bolivia, Mauritius, Brunei, Argentina, Chile, and Greece saw a 40% decrease in average travel booking prices. Zhongjin believes that the longer Spring Festival holiday this year will drive growth for OTA platforms. The 2025 Spring Festival is set to begin on January 14th, and recent national Spring Festival TV and telephone conferences have released forecasts for the total cross-regional population movements during the Spring Festival, while major OTA platforms have also released their 2025 Spring Festival tourism forecasts. With New Year's Eve in 2025 being included as a statutory holiday, the holiday has been extended to 8 days, and from the current data, the longer holiday period can allow people to return home and go on vacation at the same time, resulting in strong demand for both domestic and cross-border travel. Related concept stocks: Ctrip Group (09961): The company's net operating income and profits grew rapidly in the third quarter of 2024, with outstanding performance driven mainly by the high travel sentiment of consumers, maintaining strong growth momentum in both domestic and international travel, as well as the company's continuous optimization on the cost side. With the restoration of outbound tourism in the long term, the company's continuous improvement in the business layout on the global OTA platform and the application of AIGC in cultural and tourism integration are expected to bring sustained growth drivers. TongchengTravel (00780): In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 4.991 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +51%; adjusted net profit was 910 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +46.6%; revenue and adjusted net profit both exceeded the company's previous guidance. Core OTA revenue reached 4.013 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +22%; vacation business revenue reached 979 million yuan, a month-on-month increase of +36%, also exceeding the company's previous guidance. The company's adjusted net profit margin in Q3 2024 increased by 2.7 percentage points to 18.2%; the core OTA profit margin reached 31.3%, a year-on-year increase of 5.9 percentage points, and a month-on-month increase of 6.8 percentage points.Na Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation (01880): Benefiting from the continuous expansion of visa-free countries, the continuous optimization of transit visa policies, and the continuous increase in international passenger flights, the company's sales in its duty-free stores for entry and exit increased significantly in the first three quarters of this year. Among them, the revenue of duty-free stores at Beijing Airport (including Capital International Airport and Daxing International Airport) increased by more than 140% year-on-year, and the revenue of duty-free stores at Shanghai International Airport (including Pudong International Airport and Hongqiao International Airport) increased by nearly 60% year-on-year."Je suis heureux de vous rencontrer." "I am happy to meet you."