US consumer spending breaks Wall Street doubt! Online sales during holiday shopping season hit record high.

According to Adobe's data platform statistics, stimulated by extensive discount activities, consumer spending in the United States continued to expand, completely shattering the pessimistic expectations of many Wall Street investment institutions in November that consumer spending during the 2024 holiday shopping season would decline. Adobe's latest statistics show that U.S. e-commerce consumption during the 2024 holiday shopping season unexpectedly increased by 9%, reaching a record-breaking $241 billion. The so-called "holiday shopping season" in Western countries refers to the last two months of each year, namely November and December, with Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas all falling within this period. Therefore, this period covers several very important shopping holidays and large-scale retail promotions, making it the most critical sales period for U.S. e-commerce as well as retail giants such as Walmart and Target, and also a key period for driving U.S. GDP growth. In the U.S. GDP calculation system, 70%-80% of detailed statistical items are closely related to consumer spending. Adobe's statistics show that in the last two months of 2024, over half of online consumer spending was used to purchase electronics, clothing, and home goods, with the highest year-on-year growth rate seen in various groceries and cosmetics expenditures. Adobe's analysis team stated, "The significant discounts during the 2024 holiday shopping season attracted consumers who are becoming increasingly price-sensitive." The company added that the sales volume of products is directly proportional to the discount amount. Adobe stated that overall, the record-breaking online sales total during the holiday shopping season in the U.S. was driven by an increase in demand, not by price increases, which is good news for the U.S. economy. Since 2024, although the rate of price increases in the U.S. has slowed down, it was still on an upward trend, and under the continued pressure of high interest rates since 2022, some low-income U.S. consumers significantly reduced their spending and prioritized purchasing essential items such as food and drinking water. The accumulation of price increases over the years has also brought demand difficulties to many U.S. retailers, especially those focusing on non-essential consumer goods. Despite this, early statistics show that online sales during Black Friday and the Christmas holiday period still indicate strong overall consumer spending in the U.S. The GDP NOW forecasting model of the Atlanta Fed currently predicts that under the continued stimulus of strong consumer spending, the annualized quarterly growth rate of the U.S. GDP in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to achieve a 2.4% increase, slightly lower than the previous quarter's growth rate. In recent years, although the growth rate of the U.S. economy has slowed down, it has surprisingly maintained an "above-expected growth pattern," and 2024 is no exception. Despite the long-run high borrowing costs in the U.S. suppressing the development of housing and manufacturing, leading to a slowdown in hiring activities, the U.S. economy, with its strong consumer spending data, is on the brink of achieving the long-awaited "soft landing" for U.S. Fed officials. Despite the uncertainties of the presidential elections, and the continued high benchmark interest rates in the U.S., there are significant signs of cooling in the labor market. However, with the incredibly strong level of consumer spending, the already announced 2024 U.S. economic growth data is still strong, exceeding all economists' expectations for the U.S. economy at the end of 2023. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, the U.S. is expected to be the best-performing developed country among the G7 countries in 2024. The continued outperformance of the U.S. economy in 2024 compared to economists' expectations lies in the strong U.S. consumers. Despite the slowing pace of hiring in the labor market, U.S. wage growth continues to exceed the inflation rate, and household wealth is also breaking new records along with the soaring U.S. stock market, supporting the ongoing robust expansion of U.S. household spending. Undoubtedly, in the U.S., the continuously strong consumer spending under the long-held high-interest rates of the Fed is increasingly being driven by high-net-worth individuals, who are enjoying the so-called wealth accumulation effect brought about by the significant rise in house prices and the U.S. stock market. However, at the same time, many low-income consumers are relying on credit cards and other loans to support their daily spending, with some showing significant signs of financial pressure such as higher default and delinquency rates.