Saudi Vision 2030, a non-oil economy vision, requires a huge amount of investment. The government plans to increase borrowing by 2025.
06/01/2025
GMT Eight
In 2024, Saudi Arabia, one of the largest emerging market bond issuers, announced recently that it plans to maintain a similar pace of government borrowing in 2025 to fund numerous large "oil and broad diversification projects," especially to drive rapid development of Saudi non-oil economy. The Saudi National Debt Management Center stated in a statement on Sunday evening that Saudi Arabia's funding needs for this year are expected to be around 139 billion riyals (about $37 billion). The Debt Management Center stated that slightly over 100 billion riyals will be used to cover the budget deficit, with the rest of the funds being used to repay maturing debts.
In addition to issuing bonds, the Saudi Arabian government led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman may also issue securities related to loans. Last week, the Saudi government announced that it had obtained about $25 billion in three-year revolving credit lines from three banks. According to the latest data collected by Bloomberg, these three banks are Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, and Dubai Islamic Bank.
Saudi Arabia is one of the largest emerging market debt issuers
According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia sold sovereign bonds worth up to $17 billion to international markets in 2024, second only to Romania in the emerging markets. It is understood that all types of sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia are denominated in US dollars, but this year the Saudi government is said to be considering other major currencies to diversify its funding base.
Saudi Arabia's total bond financing in 2024, including all financing transactions completed by national entities such as the world's largest sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), totaled around $50 billion.
Under the Saudi Arabia "2030 Vision for the Future" agenda led by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi government is investing billions of dollars in projects ranging from the "NEOM Future City" to sports centers for football and basketball, and cutting-edge semiconductor manufacturing factories in various frontier technology sectors. Saudi Arabia remains the world's largest oil exporter, but under the leadership of bin Salman, the Saudi government is striving to vigorously develop the non-oil economy, with the "2030 Vision for the Future" being the core mega-project under bin Salman's leadership.
The "2030 Vision for the Future" of Saudi Arabia is an ambitious national development plan aimed at reducing Saudi Arabia's overreliance on oil revenues through economic diversification and social reforms, and driving the country towards sustainable and modern development. The plan was launched by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in 2016. Key focuses of this vision plan include attracting international investments through a series of large projects such as NEOM (the Saudi Future City project) and the Red Sea Project, while also vigorously developing the tourism industry, high-tech industries, and renewable energy.
NEOM Future City is the most important vision plan for bin Salman, which includes multiple sub-projects, the most famous of which is THE LINE, a linear smart city envisioned in Saudi Arabia with no cars, streets, or carbon emissions. THE LINE is planned to accommodate at least 9 million people and be presented in the form of a 170-km-long structure, with all basic services within a five-minute walking distance, and the city powered by 100% renewable energy. In addition, NEOM includes other important areas such as Oxagon (an innovative industrial city), Trojena (a winter tourist destination), and Sindalah (a luxury island tourist destination).
According to statistics from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the price of Brent crude oil is currently around $76 per barrel, below the level of over $90 per barrel required by Saudi Arabia to balance its "2025 large-scale government budget." Nevertheless, Saudi state-owned oil producer Saudi Aramco has just raised next month's oil prices for Asian buyers, indicating that it believes demand in its primary markets is strengthening.
The Saudi government expects a fiscal deficit of approximately 2.8% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
Despite high spending needs, the Saudi Arabian government has a very strong balance sheet and sufficient liquidity to take on more debt to support its investments, as stated in a recent report by Wall Street giant Goldman Sachs. In November, Moody's Investor Services, one of the world's three major credit rating agencies, upgraded Saudi Arabia's credit rating from "A1" to "Aa3," on par with France and the UK, citing very optimistic economic prospects for non-oil industries.
It is understood that the largest sovereign wealth fund in Saudi Arabia, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), is actively selling off the stock assets held by the fund to provide continuous cash support for Saudi government's extensive spending plans. In addition to domestic Saudi companies, this sovereign wealth fund also invests in top companies in various industries globally, from Saudi electricity and utilities company Acwa Power, to stock exchange operator Saudi Tadawul Group Holding. Furthermore, the PIF, the largest sovereign wealth fund in Saudi Arabia, also holds shares of several tech giants in the US stock market, as well as emerging car manufacturers like Lucid outside the Middle East region, which may also face selling off due to Saudi government's fundraising pressure.