EB SECURITIES: With the A-share annual report season approaching, we are focusing on three main themes: oil and gas, high cyclical industries, and domestic substitutes.

date
06/01/2025
avatar
GMT Eight
EB Securities published a research report stating that as the annual reports of A-shares approach, the market is not only focused on the performance of listed companies in 2024, but also on the future prosperity and profitability of their respective industries. The oil and gas sector, high prosperity cycle products, and domestic substitutes are expected to have good profitability in 2024 and are also likely to maintain a high industry prosperity in 2025. First theme: oil and gas direction: (1) Crude oil: oil prices rose and then fell throughout the year, with oil prices expected to remain high in 2025; (2) Natural gas: supply and demand are becoming loose, with disruptions in supply from Russian gas to Europe; (3) Oilfield services: upstream capital spending increases with the continuous promotion of "increased reserves and production", maintaining high prosperity in the oilfield services. Second theme: High prosperity cycle products: (1) Phosphate chemicals: phosphate ore prices remain high throughout the year, with continued tight supply and demand, benefiting industry leaders; (2) Refrigerants: the prosperity of refrigerants rose in 2024 with the allocation of quotas, and the outlook for reduced supply in 2025; (3) Vitamins: overseas giants cutting off supply led to a significant increase in vitamin prices. Third theme: Domestic substitutes: (1) Semiconductor materials: global semiconductor industry recovery in 2024, with increased importance of localization due to overseas sanctions; (2) OLED materials: rapidly increasing AMOLED shipments in 2024, with the expectation of increased market penetration and continued industry prosperity. In 2024 Q4, the prices of domestic chemical products fluctuated steadily, and companies with high growth earnings in the first three quarters are expected to maintain high growth for the full year. According to Wind data, the average China Chemical Products Price Index (CCPI) in 2024 Q4 is around 4367 points, with a corresponding index range of 4307-4490 points, indicating a relatively stable overall fluctuation in domestic chemical product prices in 2024 Q4, with no significant changes in profitability for chemical companies. Therefore, as the annual reports for 2024 approach, EB Securities believes that listed companies with high performance growth in the first three quarters will continue to achieve high performance growth for the full year. According to Wind data, under the CITIC industry classification, in the first three quarters of 2024, a total of 57 listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical and basic chemical industries achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of over 50%, with the majority of these listed companies concentrated in other chemical products (11), paint, ink and pigment (5), and electronic chemicals (4) sub-industries.

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