Dividends and the theme of "shrinking circles" are currently in progress, possibly on the eve of a cyclical reversal.

Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the current market's "barbell strategy" at both ends, whether it is dividend assets or thematic investments, is facing macroeconomic and industrial trend trading expectations that are clearly different from the past, with trading activity declining marginally, dividends and themes are "shrinking circles." In fact, liquidity trading based on expectations of monetary easing may have some "misunderstandings." The future liquidity easing space and necessity do not seem to be as ample and natural as investors expect, and this also sets the stage for a possible peak in trading. It is worth mentioning that the fundamentals are also changing, and we may be on the eve of a reversal in the inventory cycle. Focus on the potential overall decline in thematic investments after the reversal of interest rate trends, while assets benefiting from interest rate reversals in dividends will continue to move forward. 1. Trading activity is declining marginally, and dividends and themes are "shrinking circles." Since December 2024, the "barbell strategy" has become the market mainstream again, with dividend assets and technology themes showing relatively better performance. In fact, since the second half of 2023, choosing the barbell strategy seems to have become a kind of "muscle memory" for investors, that is, when there are macro expectations in the market, they play the cyclical and policy favor direction, and during the fundamental verification period after the policy is implemented, they choose to wait for the next macro trading moment by "holding both ends". However, the macro environment and industrial trend trading expectations faced by the two ends of the current market's chosen "barbell strategy", whether dividend assets or thematic investments, are clearly different from the past. The decline in physical consumption due to the active efforts of the manufacturing industry to overcome "internal circulation" and reduce inventory has dampened the performance of physical consumption-based dividends; and for technology thematic growth, the current market's AI application mainly relies on mass penetration among populations, and its performance realization ability, stock selection requirements, and difficulty in tracking prosperity are all much higher than on the computing power side, and the attitude of regulation towards underperforming small and micro-cap stocks and their own valuation levels are also incomparable. Minsheng Securities has already seen that the rise in this round of dividend assets has shrunk to a few individual stocks from the undervalued bank and stable dividend sectors such as petroleum, transportation, and so on. With the continued decline in trading activity, the intensity of thematic investments has also shown a significant decline, while the trading activity in the TMT sector has instead risen to near two-year highs, second only to April and June 2023. 2. There may be some "misunderstandings" in liquidity trading based on expectations of monetary easing by investors. On the one hand, the spread between the credit rate (weighted average interest rate for loans) and the market rate (10-year government bond yield) began to rebound in 2023, and in all rebound stages since 2010, the market rate has ... (text cut off)In terms of coal, aluminum, oil, and copper, the demand base is constantly solidifying, supply constraints will be verified, and a new round of strategic opportunities may be approaching. Risk reminder: domestic inventory cycles fluctuate beyond expectations; Some industry restructuring may take longer than expected.Bonjour, comment a va aujourd'hui?