China's Internet of Things: The total social logistics amount in China from January to November was 32.02 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%.

date
29/12/2024
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GMT Eight
On December 29, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the logistics operation analysis from January to November 2024. Thanks to a series of stable economic and development-promoting policies, positive factors in economic operation continue to accumulate. The quality and efficiency of logistics development have steadily improved, and the operation trend continues to be positive. From January to November, the total social logistics amount in the country was 32.02 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate basically consistent with that of January to October; in November, the monthly growth was 5.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to October. Since the fourth quarter, the stabilization of logistics demand has been evident, with the growth rates in October and November increasing for two consecutive months, both faster than the average growth rate in the third quarter. Additionally, from January to November, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 12.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January to October, and the growth rate has been rising for three consecutive months. The China Logistics Prosperity Index from January to November averaged 51.6%, with November reaching 52.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. With the improvement in industrial demand, rapid adaptation of logistics services, and entering the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, the overall activity level of logistics is stable and trending upwards. In terms of industries, over 80% of business volume indexes are in the expansion range, and indexes for railways, e-commerce express delivery, and warehousing have all improved. The original text states: Steady Progress in Logistics Operations, Continuous Optimization of Service Quality - Analysis of Logistics Operations from January to November 2024 China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing China Logistics Information Center In November, thanks to a series of stable economic and development-promoting policies, positive factors in economic operation continue to accumulate. Since the fourth quarter, policies in multiple areas have worked together, leading to stable growth in logistics demand and market size, with key operational indicators such as total social logistics amount and total logistics industry revenue continuing to rise. Meanwhile, supply chain efficiency has improved, and turnover of inventories in multiple areas has accelerated, with operating costs in transportation, warehousing, and other segments returning to reasonable levels. At the micro level, logistics enterprises are performing well, financial pressures are easing, and future expectations are stable. Driven by positive factors, the quality and efficiency of logistics development have steadily improved, and the operational trend continues to be positive. I. Continuous manifestation of the combined effects of policies, driving steady growth in logistics demand From January to November, the total social logistics amount in the country was 32.02 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, an increase of 5.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate holding steady compared to January to October; in November, the monthly growth was 5.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to October. Since the fourth quarter, the trend of stabilization in logistics demand has become evident, with growth rates in October and November accelerating for two consecutive months, both higher than the average growth rate in the third quarter. Additionally, driven by the effective implementation of policies such as "dual control" and large-scale equipment upgrades, development in industrial, consumption, and import sectors has continued to improve in terms of size and quality, optimizing the total social logistics amount. In terms of structure, the logistics demand this month primarily exhibits the following characteristics: Expansion of industrial logistics demand, accelerated growth of new drivers. From January to November, the total industrial goods logistics amount maintained steady growth, increasing by 5.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate holding steady compared to January to October; in November, the monthly growth was 5.7%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to October. The scope of recovery in industrial logistics has continued to expand, with more than 80% of regional and industry logistics demands continuing to grow, more than 60% growth in production output of industrial products, and an increased growth in related logistics volumes compared to October. In terms of structure, traditional manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries are showing signs of recovery in multiple areas. In November, logistics demand in the raw material manufacturing industry increased by 6.1% year-on-year, an increase of 2.0 percentage points compared to October; among them, logistics demands for bulk commodities such as chemicals, petroleum processing, and nonferrous metals all increased by over 7%, providing strong support for upstream and downstream manufacturing and agricultural production. In November, logistics demand in the high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, consistently higher than the average level of the industry throughout the year, aiding in the high-quality development of the industrial economy. Industries such as optoelectronic device manufacturing and integrated circuit manufacturing have seen growth rates higher than 20%. Periodic adjustments in import logistics, with growth rates remaining relatively stable. From January to November, import logistics volume increased by 3.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing slightly by 0.2 percentage points compared to January to October; in November, import logistics volume increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.9 percentage points compared to October. The slowdown in the growth rate of import logistics volume this month is partly due to the high base level of the previous year, as well as some tightening in the quantity of imported key intermediate goods and equipment components due to restrictions on overseas production capacity. Looking at major commodities, products related to the semiconductor industry are experiencing a stable growth in import logistics, with the logistics volume for intermediate goods such as semiconductor devices and integrated circuits increasing by more than 10% throughout the year. The structure of import logistics for bulk commodities is differentiated, with the logistics volume for iron ore continuing to slow down; from January to November, the logistics volume for iron ore increased by 4.3% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.7 percentage points compared to January to October. There has been some improvement in the logistics volume for crude oil and coal, with the rate of decrease in crude oil imports narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to January to October, and a 2.9 percentage point increase in coal imports, providing strong support for the stable operation of the supply chain. Strong promotion of innovative development in the green sector, with continued rapid growth in logistics for recycled resources. Under the promotion of policies promoting high-quality development of industries, the transition to green development continues to deepen, leading to rapid growth in logistics demand in related sectors. On one hand, there has been strong development of innovation in the field of new energy, with a continuous increase in logistics volumes for green products. In November, the production volume of new energy vehicles and CECEP Solar Energy battery products increased by 51.1% and 10.9% year-on-year, respectively. On the other hand, the recycling and utilization of abandoned resources and other green development models are gradually improving, with related industries in various sectors becoming more standardized. In addition, the promotion of policies related to "new energy" and other areas have further driven the release of space for resource recycling in sectors such as automobiles, household appliances, and machinery, leading to an 8.6% year-on-year increase in logistics for recycled resources from January to November, maintaining a fast growth rate throughout the year. The momentum of consumer goods logistics has not waned, with continuous growth in online retail demand. From January to November, the total logistics amount for units and residents increased by 6.5% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.5 percentage points compared to January to October, but remaining higher than the average level of total social logistics amount. The logistics demand for consumer goods remains high, with demand for logistics in online retail continuing to increase.Due to factors such as sales promotions ending early, the cumulative growth rate of physical goods online retail sales has slightly declined, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% from January to November. This accounts for 26.7% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous month. This shows that the momentum of logistics for consumer goods is still on the rise, and new business formats continue to play a leading role in driving growth.2. The logistics industry operates in an orderly manner, and the industry's prosperity is steadily increasing. From January to November, the total revenue of the logistics industry was 12.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.0%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2 percentage points compared to January-October, and the growth rate has been rising for three consecutive months. The China Logistics Industry Prosperity Index averaged 51.6% from January to November, reaching 52.8% in November, an increase of 0.2 percentage points. With the improvement in industrial demand and the rapid adaptation of logistics services, coupled with the traditional peak season in the fourth quarter, the overall activity level of logistics is steadily increasing. From the perspective of the industry, more than 80% of the sector's business volume index is in the expansion range, with the railway, e-commerce express delivery, and warehousing industry indexes showing improvement. Railway freight transport continues to optimize transportation organization, further clearing capacity bottlenecks. In November, the daily average loading of trains in the national railway reached 194,000 cars, surpassing the previous record set in October, setting a new historical record. While maintaining steady volume, efforts have been made to optimize organizational models, such as through dynamically optimizing loading structures, effectively controlling the backlog of heavy cars. In terms of railway lines, the operational schedules of local trains such as the Geku line and the Lanzhou hub have been optimized, further improving the capacity of the Xinjiang passage. In November, the daily average handover of freight trucks at border ports with Xinjiang was 284 trains, an increase of 55 trains compared to the same period last year, a nearly 40% increase, which strongly supported the transportation of goods to and from Xinjiang and the operation of China-Europe and Central Asia trains, providing a good foundation for the smooth operation of international train loops. E-commerce express logistics shows resilient growth, and the rural distribution system provides strong support. Despite being affected by factors such as the advance of promotional activities under a series of consumer promotion policies, e-commerce express logistics continues to show resilient growth. In November, the express delivery business completed 17.21 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%. On November 11, postal and express delivery companies nationwide handled a total of 701 million parcels, 151% of their daily business volume, an increase of 9.7% year-on-year. Particularly with the continuous improvement of the rural logistics distribution system, the sustained release of rural e-commerce demand is evident. The logistics business index for rural e-commerce in November was 134.5 points, an increase of 2.3 points from the previous month, with a growth rate significantly higher than the average level. Logistics operations run smoothly, and the operational efficiency of the industrial chain has improved. Various sub-segments of the logistics industry remained stable from January to November. In terms of transportation, the structure has been further adjusted and optimized, and the integration of cross-transport modes continues to improve. With the growing demand for logistics, the volume of raw materials and bulk goods transportation has significantly increased, with railway and water transportation accounting for a higher percentage in November, each increasing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year. At the same time, the development of multimodal transportation such as rail-water and rail-road has accelerated. Taking the world's largest port, Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, as an example, by 2024, the cumulative volume of container sea-rail transport has reached 1.66 million TEUs, an increase of over 11% year-on-year, reaching a new historical high, with the share of multimodal transport steadily increasing. In terms of warehousing, turnover has remained efficient, facilitating closer and smoother connections between the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. Industrial data for enterprises above a certain scale show that in November, the production and sales rate of industrial enterprises above a designated size maintained a good level of 97%, with the growth rates of inventory and finished goods inventory falling by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month, slowing the overall growth of social inventory. As the peak season for logistics approaches at the end of the year, the simultaneous optimization of transportation structure and the efficient stability of inventory turnover will help facilitate the smooth circulation of the industrial chain, alleviate inventory and fund occupation pressures, and further reduce the overall logistics costs for the entire society. 3. Logistics supply and demand stabilize and improve, and business operations of enterprises are basically stable. In November, the overall supply and demand in the logistics market improved, with prices in some transportation modes and sectors showing signs of stabilizing, which is conducive to the improvement of logistics enterprises' operating conditions. The growth rate of key enterprises' logistics business volume and revenue has accelerated and profits have declined at a slower pace. Prices in various service areas stabilize and rise, and industry profitability shows signs of recovery. As we enter November, many areas such as water transportation, express delivery, and road transportation enter the peak season, with the continued improvement of the supply and demand relationship in logistics, transportation and service price indices continue to rise. In November, the logistics service price index in the Logistics Prosperity Index rose for two consecutive months. In terms of maritime transport, the coastal bulk cargo freight index continued to rise, with a monthly average index of 1107.1 points, an increase of 7.3% from the previous month; the overall stability of the container shipping price index, the China Export Container Comprehensive Shipping Price Index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange had a monthly average index of 1427.3 points, an increase of 0.8% from the previous month. In terms of express delivery, the policy of "anti-inward folding" is guiding the transformation of the industry's competition model, with the average price per ticket significantly increasing, with an average increase of 0.60 yuan per ticket compared to the previous month, representing a increase of over 7%. The revenue of key enterprises has rebounded, and the rate of decline in profits has slowed. According to key surveys, the year-on-year growth rate of logistics business revenue for key surveyed enterprises from January to November was 5.3%, driven by the rebound in logistics demand from upstream production and sales, resulting in faster revenue growth and an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to January-October. This month, as enterprises face rising demand and operational efficiency control adjustments, the upward momentum in costs has weakened, with each hundred yuan of logistics revenue decreasing by 0.4 yuan compared to the previous month in October, and the decline in logistics enterprise profits has slowed, with profitability expected to enter an improving channel. In summary, the effects of a comprehensive set of incremental policies are gradually becoming apparent, with logistics operating indicators steadily rising since the fourth quarter and significant improvements in various areas. In addition, the recent release of the "Action Plan for Effectively Reducing the Overall Cost of Social Logistics" by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council will promote effective reduction of the overall cost of social logistics from a global and strategic perspective, ushering in an important development opportunity for the logistics industry. In terms of demand growth, policy initiatives are guiding the integration of logistics with the industrial chain supply chain, promoting the construction of a supply chain system that integrates purchasing, inventory, production, sales, and reverse recovery, presenting significant growth potential for further expanding logistics demand. Key survey data shows that related supply chain contract order numbers have maintained high growth rates over the years. In terms of supply potential, policy guidance is driving the improvement and transformation of logistics services, leading logistics companies to enhance service quality, timeliness, and convenience. By accelerating resource integration and deepening organizational collaboration, logistics companies will continue to enrich the industrial ecosystem, and there is still great potential to explore new logistics models. In terms of innovation, the process of digital transformation and intelligent transformation of logistics continues to advance, providing more possibilities for the cultivation of emerging industries such as unmanned driving and low-altitude economy, as well as helping to unlock more application scenarios for logistics and industry, and improve business operations efficiencies and supplyChain competitiveness.A series of policies in the logistics field are being gradually introduced, and new understanding and new approaches are beneficial to further stabilizing the expectations of business entities and improving market vitality. Looking at the trend in the later period, the expected index of business activities of logistics enterprises has been in the high prosperity zone of over 56% for four consecutive months, and the logistics industry will continue to develop steadily. The total social logistics volume for the whole year is expected to exceed 36 trillion yuan, and the ratio of total social logistics costs to GDP may decrease. This article is excerpted from the "China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing", edited by GMTEight: Wang Qiujia.

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