A quick look at the performance of global asset classes in 2024.

In 2024, there was a clear differentiation in the performance of global asset classes. In the stock market, developed markets, especially the US stock market, performed strongly, while emerging markets had a more moderate performance. The bond market saw a "bond year," with investors chasing high yields leading to inflows of funds. In the commodity market, gold performed well, while oil prices remained volatile. In the currency market, the US dollar showed relative strength, while other major currencies generally declined. Looking ahead to 2025, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Securities believes that investors should appropriately lower their expectations for the returns of strong assets in 2024 and be prepared for increased volatility. The expected returns of previous strong assets such as US stocks, gold, and Chinese bonds should be adjusted downwards, while A-shares, GEM stocks, and Hong Kong stocks still stand out in terms of valuation, with room for returns to recover. The risk-hedging value of gold is still worth considering. It is recommended to overweight US bonds and gold in the first half of the year, allocate equities as standard, and underweight commodities. In the second half of the year, gradually pay attention to opportunities for allocation in global stock markets and risk assets like copper after valuation adjustments. CICC recommends the standard allocation of Chinese stocks and bonds in 2025, with flexible tactical adjustments, overweighting and then reducing overseas stocks, gradually reducing overseas bonds, increasing gold on dips, and maintaining underweight commodities. Haitong Securities recommends continuing to overweight A-shares and H-shares, expecting the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index to rise by 15% and 13% respectively in 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) growing by 7% to 10%. Haitong Securities hold high expectations for EPS growth of Chinese stocks. On the one hand, the recovery of the consumer services industry is expected to be an important driver of profit growth in 2025. On the other hand, with the help of policies such as stock buybacks, increased holdings, and refinancing, the total amount of buybacks by listed companies is expected to double next year, with the total cash returns to shareholders expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan. In bond market investments, Morgan Stanley Fund believes that due to expectations of loose monetary policy, Chinese government bond yields have significantly declined. After the third rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the most rapid decline in risk-free interest rates in China may come to an end. The core of China's economic effort in the future lies in the direction and intensity of fiscal stimulus. In the currency market, Goldman Sachs points out that in 2025, the "strong dollar" will be the main theme in the foreign exchange market, and this trend is expected to continue for a long time. Goldman Sachs expects the euro to weaken further in 2025, possibly even breaking parity with the US dollar. Eurozone policymakers may adopt loose monetary policy to counter tariff shocks, further depressing the euro exchange rate. A report released by UBS Global Wealth Management points out that if the US dollar weakens and the Bank of England maintains a cautious interest rate reduction attitude, the pound sterling against the US dollar may experience a significant rebound in the next year. UBS analysts predict that by December 2025, the pound sterling against the US dollar exchange rate will rise to 1.35. This article is reprinted from the WeChat public account "Wind Wharton", GMTEight editor: Wang Qiujia.