Li Jia Ge predicts: Hong Kong property prices may show a significant upward momentum in the first quarter of next year.

The head of the research department of Ricacorp Properties, Chen Haichao, stated that with the support of multiple positive news in recent months, property prices in Hong Kong have continued to stabilize, recording consecutive increases month after month. However, as the year-end season approaches, the market is expected to be quieter, with more significant market momentum and price increases likely to appear as early as the first quarter of next year. The latest data released by the Rating and Valuation Department of Hong Kong shows that in November 2024, the private residential property price index in Hong Kong was reported at 290.9 points, a slight increase of 0.07% from October's 290.7 points, marking the second consecutive monthly increase. However, in the first 11 months of the year, property prices in Hong Kong have still fallen by 6.55%; compared to the historical high of 398.1 points in September 2021, prices have cumulatively dropped by 26.93%. Chen Haichao pointed out that the stability and slight increase in property prices in Hong Kong in November can be attributed to factors such as the relaxation of stamp duty for 70% of properties in the latter half of October. However, at the beginning of November, there were major events such as the "super week", including the US elections, interest rate decisions, and the National People's Congress, which affected the property market, keeping the overall market situation in a bullish state. Looking ahead to the remaining month of December, developers are slowing down their project launches, and the secondary market is quiet. With fewer transactions occurring, property prices in Hong Kong are expected to continue to move sideways, with monthly changes forecasted to be within 0.5% increase. It is estimated that property prices in Hong Kong will rise by approximately 0.95% to 1.5% in the fourth quarter, with a final annual drop of around 6% to 6.5%. As the festive atmosphere of the Lunar New Year dissipates by the end of January next year, a small uptrend is expected in the first quarter, with increased market activity and property prices. In terms of rental index, the data from the Rating and Valuation Department shows a continued softening in November with a slight decrease, reflecting the seasonal slowdown in rentals. The rental index fell by 0.36% in the month, reaching 193.1 points, the lowest level in nearly 5 months. It is believed that rental prices will continue to fluctuate narrowly in December, following a sideways pattern, with the rental index expected to rise by 3.82% for the whole year. After experiencing a market adjustment in the fourth quarter, the rental market is still promising due to the support of new talents and professionals arriving in Hong Kong, leading to a positive outlook for rental prices in 2025.