Roadfort: Consumption of the main oil consuming countries is slowing down, and oil prices are expected to remain at a lower level in 2025.

Rufete releases the Energy Market Trends Outlook for 2025 and beyond. From economic fluctuations and escalating geopolitical uncertainties, to changes in the supply status of oil and natural gas, to the continuous expansion of renewable energy generation, a variety of factors have an undeniable impact on today's global energy system. Due to increased production from oil-producing countries including the United States and Brazil, as well as a slowdown in consumption from major oil-consuming countries like China, it is expected that oil prices will remain at lower levels in 2025. In addition, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plans to increase oil production in 2025, which would be the first increase in oil production since 2022, further supporting the possibility of global oversupply. According to JPMorgan's forecast, by the end of 2025, the average price of oil is expected to decrease from around $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024 to $60 per barrel. However, dynamic factors may change the trajectory of oil prices, such as a faster-than-expected recovery in global demand leading to an increase in oil prices. At the same time, geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East reveal the current fragility of the global energy system. While actual oil supplies have not been disrupted, a supply interruption in the Middle East could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. The liquefied natural gas (LNG) market also faces similar issues, but currently the impact of conflicts is minimal and the risk of supply disruptions is relatively low. However, if the situation escalates, prices are likely to increase significantly. Meanwhile, thanks to technological advancements, economies of scale, and reduced financing costs, the production costs of new energy sources such as CECEP Solar Energy and wind energy continue to decrease. This puts many regions' renewable energy at a competitive advantage against fossil fuels. By 2025, the average costs of CECEP Solar Energy and wind energy generation are expected to decrease by 26% to 59% compared to 2015. Additionally, it is predicted that by 2025, CECEP Solar Energy generation could meet nearly half of the global electricity demand growth. In summary, this is crucial for the current world's accelerating electricity demand growth, which is currently at its highest peak in 20 years. In developing countries, the use of renewable energy varies. Initial capital costs will push up electricity prices in the short term as countries invest in infrastructure to support the transition to clean energy (such as modernizing the power grid). To address this challenge, more affordable financing needs to be provided, while new bridges need to be built between investors and markets that require such investments. Overall, renewable energy generation is expected to significantly increase, with its share in global electricity supply expected to rise from 30% in 2023 to 35% in 2025, surpassing global coal consumption for the first time. The growth rate of renewable energy in the transportation, industrial, and construction sectors is expected to be twice as fast as it was from 2017 to 2023 in the next five years. Furthermore, the substantial decrease in battery costs is accelerating the adoption of renewable energy. With oversupply and slower growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales, the price of lithium has decreased by over 80% since its peak in November 2022. The emergence of sodium-ion batteries as a richer and cheaper alternative affects the demand for lithium. Prices of other battery materials such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite also experienced significant decreases of 30% to 45% from 2022 to 2023, leading to a 14% reduction in battery costs. Innovations in battery chemistry and manufacturing are expected to further reduce the cost of lithium-ion batteries by 40% from 2023 to 2030 and introduce sodium-ion batteries to the market. However, price drops may also reduce the attractiveness of investment in key minerals. Moreover, since global production and processing of key minerals such as lithium and cobalt are concentrated in a few countries, any interruption in these supply chains or geopolitical conflicts could increase battery costs, thus raising the costs of renewable energy projects. As the end of 2024 approaches, it is particularly important to examine various factors redefining energy security (including the transition to renewable energy, geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and policy changes) and explore new ways to address these issues.