As the closing of the year-end gains of the US stock market, is it still worth looking forward to the "Santa Claus rally"?
27/12/2024
GMT Eight
As market participants return from the Christmas holiday break, Wall Street struggled on Thursday. Earlier in the week, US stocks had their best Christmas Eve performance since 1974. However, lackluster trading activity has put the "Santa Claus rally" on hold. Is this year's Santa Claus rally still something to look forward to?
The term "Santa Claus rally" was coined by legendary figure Yale Hirsch, author of "Stock Trader's Almanac," referring to the phenomenon of stocks rising in the last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the new year.
The benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index has surged 26.63% so far this year, and a successful Santa Claus rally would be a perfect ending to a bountiful year for the stock market.
The chart below details the trends since 2000, showing that out of 24 occurrences, the Santa Claus rally has successfully happened 18 times. There was one year of flat performance, and five years of decline, with the most recent decline in 2023.
Thursday's market weakness may be somewhat disheartening, but Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, says not to abandon hope for a Santa Claus rally. Detrick shared the chart below on X:
Only time will tell if the Santa Claus rally will be successful in the coming days. The S&P 500 index rose over 1% on Tuesday, the first day of the Santa Claus rally.
Investors looking to track the benchmark S&P 500 index can consider the following exchange-traded funds: (SPY.US), (VOO.US), (IVV.US), (RSP.US), (SSO.US), (UPRO.US), (SH.US), (SDS.US), and (SPXU.US).