CICC 2025 China Natural Gas Outlook: Slowing Growth in Volume, Accelerated Reform and Integration.

CICC released a research report stating that it is expected that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China will increase by approximately 6.2% by 2025, compared to a decrease from 9-10% in 2024 to 6-7% in 2025. The wholesale price of upstream natural gas in China is expected to stabilize. The focus of the natural gas market reform in 2025 will continue to be on guiding the purchase cost of civil gas to reduce cross subsidies. The improved price mechanism for residential gas and the improvement of the competitive landscape in the industry will also benefit gas companies, allowing them to maintain stable growth in business performance. Furthermore, the trend of stricter industry safety supervision will continue, and the government may continue to promote the scale integration of urban pipeline gas to improve the industry's competitive landscape. Key points from CICC include: - It is expected that the apparent consumption of natural gas in China will increase by approximately 6.2% by 2025. - The upstream wholesale price of natural gas in China is expected to stabilize in 2025. - The deepening of downstream market reforms is expected to further improve the industry's competitive landscape. - The trend of stricter industry safety supervision will continue, and the government may continue to promote the scale integration of urban pipeline gas to improve the industry's competitive landscape. Risk factors: European natural gas demand recovers better than expected, and the release of international LNG supply is lower than expected.