European Natural Resources Fund: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice next year. There may be a significant drop in global financial markets from March to May next year.

Europe's natural resources fund Commodity Discovery's special analyst Li Gangfeng said that last week the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected by the market, but indicated that there may only be two cuts in 2025 (predicted four cuts next year in September), and will closely monitor the trend of U.S. inflation. On the other hand, Powell said that the assets the Federal Reserve can invest in are limited by law, and digital currency is not included; Trump said the U.S. should sell gold and buy digital currency, which is beneficial for gold. There may be a large fluctuation (decline) in the global financial markets in March-May 2025, and it is recommended to gradually reduce risk assets during these months to protect profits. Li Gangfeng said that no one can change the historical trend regardless of who is the president, as the market is concerned about the U.S. balance sheet and the dollar. During the previous Trump presidency, the national debt increased by $7.8 trillion, combined with tax cuts and unlimited spending, which led to him setting a historical record as the third largest deficit-increasing president during his term. However, from an investment perspective, fundamentals are not important, what matters is what the market believes at the moment. The market believes that if Trump is elected, the dollar will rise, bond prices will fall, commodities will fall, and U.S. stocks and digital currency will rise. Li Gangfeng previously predicted that if Trump is elected, the market may give him a six-month honeymoon period, so the strength of U.S. stocks and digital currency may be able to maintain until around the end of April next year; regarding metals, unless geopolitical tensions rise again, perhaps the short to medium-term golden period has passed. According to historical statistics, the average return of gold prices in the first year of each U.S. president's term is only a little over 1%, and the first year of the four-year term often performs the worst.