Cui Dongshu: China exported 550,000 vehicles in November, with new energy vehicles accounting for about 25%.

Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers Cui Dongshu stated in a document that in November 2024, China's automobile exports reached 550,000 units, with a 5% year-on-year increase from November 2023 but a 6% decrease from the previous month, showing pressure in both year-on-year and month-on-month trends. From January to November 2024, China's automobile exports totaled 5.84 million units, with a 23% increase in exports. In November 2024, the export volume of new energy vehicles was 140,000 units, a 14% decrease from the previous year and a 32% decrease from the previous month. From January to November 2024, the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles reached 1.86 million units, a 13% year-on-year increase. The top 10 countries for China's automobile exports in November 2024 were Russia with 102,673 units, Mexico with 35,582 units, the United Arab Emirates with 30,289 units, Saudi Arabia with 25,494 units, the Philippines with 16,614 units, Spain with 14,660 units, the UK with 13,687 units, Kazakhstan with 13,661 units, Australia with 12,877 units, and Malaysia with 12,153 units. The top five countries with the highest export growth in November were the United Arab Emirates with 15,394 units, South Africa with 8,140 units, Spain with 6,555 units, Indonesia with 5,399 units, and India with 5,225 units. Russia saw the largest decrease from October with a decrease of 0.5 million units. The top 10 countries for the total exports of complete vehicles from January to November 2024 were Russia with 1,059,990 units, Mexico with 422,231 units, the United Arab Emirates with 291,906 units, Belgium with 257,640 units, Saudi Arabia with 242,442 units, Brazil with 228,235 units, the UK with 180,778 units, Australia with 162,717 units, the Philippines with 154,848 units, and Turkey with 125,602 units. The top five countries with the highest export growth from January to November were Russia with 219,247 units, the United Arab Emirates with 154,192 units, Brazil with 137,497 units, Belgium with 55,747 units, and Mexico with 45,815 units. The top 5 countries accounted for 57% of the export growth, with Russia contributing significantly to the exports. Thailand, Australia, and the UK saw significant declines from January to November, while the UK, Mexico, and Israel had relatively poor performance in November. The Brazilian and Russian markets also became core markets for export growth. The top 10 countries for the exports of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles in November 2024 were the Philippines with 11,563 units, Belgium with 9,357 units, Thailand with 8,526 units, India with 7,807 units, Bangladesh with 6,311 units, the United Arab Emirates with 6,267 units, the UK with 5,096 units, Brazil with 4,819 units, Indonesia with 4,452 units, and Germany with 4,426 units. The top five countries with the highest export growth compared to November 2023 for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles in November were India with 4,847 units, Indonesia with 3,244 units, the United Arab Emirates with 2,588 units, Tajikistan with 2,248 units, and Germany with 2,152 units. The top 10 countries for the total exports of new energy vehicles from January to November 2024 were Belgium with 242,297 units, Brazil with 149,923 units, the UK with 112,011 units, Thailand with 105,905 units, the Philippines with 105,701 units, Mexico with 76,252 units, India with 72,774 units, Australia with 68,959 units, the United Arab Emirates with 67,238 units, and Israel with 64,695 units. The top five countries with the highest export growth from January to November were Brazil with 98,118 units, Mexico with 61,537 units, Belgium with 56,473 units, Indonesia with 40,008 units, and the United Arab Emirates with 35,563 units, with the top 5 countries accounting for 112% of the export growth, with Brazil making a significant contribution to exports. In 2024, Belgium, the UK, and other European countries, as well as Brazil, Thailand, and other Southeast Asian countries, were the main directions for export. Recently, markets such as Israel and Thailand have seen weak exports. Non-EU European countries, as well as India, Malaysia, and other markets, have shown strong performance. The driving force behind export growth is external help, high quality, human effort, and geopolitical changes. Firstly, external help - China's automobile industry chain has strong resilience; secondly, high quality - the contribution of new energy exports has increased; thirdly, human effort - domestic brand enterprises are working hard; and fourthly, geopolitical changes - differentiated development of China's exports. The export of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation vehicles to developed countries has shown high-quality development, mainly exporting to Western Europe and Southeast Asia markets. In recent years, Western and Southern European countries such as Belgium, Spain, Slovenia, and the UK have consistently been export highlights, with slight declines in November, while exports to countries in the Americas such as Brazil have strengthened. Domestic brands such as SAIC Passenger Cars and BYD Company Limited have shown stronger performance in new energy vehicle models. Although exports of new energy vehicles to Europe slowed down in November, it is expected that with the gradual adjustment to the impact of European subsidies, China's exports to Europe should still be able to rebound and rise. 1. Overall trend of China's automobile exports 1. Historical trend of automobile exports After experiencing a platform period of millions of units for many years, China's automobile exports finally broke through in 2021. Following a sharp decline from 2013 to 2016 due to the global economic downturn, export growth gradually stabilized and improved from 2017 to 2020, with annual export volumes remaining at around 1 million units. In 2020, exports reached 1.08 million units, a 13% year-on-year decrease, before entering a period of high growth. Due to the impact of the global pandemic and the localization of Tesla, China's automobile exports achieved huge sales volume and unit price breakthroughs in the years 2021-2023. In 2023, China's automobile exports reached 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth of 57% in export volume. From January to November 2024, China's automobile exports reached 5.84 million units, with a 23% year-on-year increase. In recent periods, China's automobile exports have seen rapid growth, and as long as there is a stable international market environment, there is still tremendous potential for China's automobile export development. In the full year of 2020, sales reached 1.085 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 13.1%. In 2021, the export market sales volume reached 2.187 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%. In 2022, the export market sales volume reached 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, mainly due to the insufficient overseas supply and the significantly increased export competitiveness of Chinese car companies. In 2023, China...Car exports reached 5.22 million units, with a continuous strong growth in export volume of 54%, demonstrating a super strong performance. Compared to the gradual recovery in domestic car sales, the performance in the export market remains very strong. The growth in Chinese exports has been significant in the past two years, amidst the international pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis.In November 2024, China's automobile exports reached 550,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5% compared to November 2023, and a 6% decrease from the previous month. There is pressure on both year-on-year and month-on-month trends. From January to November, China's automobile exports reached 5.84 million units, with a growth rate of 23%. The main driving force this year continues to be the increase in China's product competitiveness and the slight growth in the market of southern countries globally, as well as the international brands in the Russian market being fully replaced by Chinese cars under the Russia-Ukraine crisis, especially the increase in export competitiveness of Chinese fuel vehicles. 2. Monthly trend of vehicle exports From the monthly trend, exports in recent years still show seasonal characteristics, with a peak in the summer and a contrasting trend compared to the domestic market. In 2022, the car market started strong, but exports gradually declined month by month from February to April due to the impact of the Shanghai epidemic, and continued to rise from May to December. In 2023, exports continued to be strong, maintaining the same sales volume as the fourth quarter of 2022, reflecting a significant increase in the world competitiveness of the Chinese automobile industry. From January to November 2024, China's automobile exports are basically following a trend of gradual strengthening over the past few years, with a slowdown in growth in the first quarter compared to the super high growth rate of the previous three years, followed by a rebound in growth from April to May, a weaker June, and a gradual slowdown from September to November. Exports in January and February of this year increased by only 20%, and by over 30% from March to May. Despite a complex external environment in the third quarter, car exports have strengthened recently. The trend in October and November is unusually low. 3. Characteristics of vehicle export structure Before 2020, China's automobile exports maintained in the millions. In 2021, total vehicle exports (including chassis) were 2.19 million units, with a growth rate of 102%, which was a good performance. The years 2021-2022 saw good performance in the export of 4WD SUVs and other passenger cars. In 2023, automobile exports to international markets were strong, with strong exports of gasoline cars and passenger cars, with a growth rate of 65%, including good exports of 4WD SUVs and small cars. This year, customs truck exports increased by 16%, relativ...A total of 3661 vehicles were exported from China in November, 12877 from Australia, and 12153 from Malaysia. The top five countries with the largest increase in vehicle exports from China in November were: United Arab Emirates with 15394 vehicles, South Africa with 8140 vehicles, Spain with 6555 vehicles, Indonesia with 5399 vehicles, and India with 5225 vehicles. Russia saw a significant decrease of 0.5 million vehicles compared to October.In the top 10 countries for total vehicle exports from January to November 2024 are: Russia with 1,059,990 vehicles, Mexico with 422,231 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 291,906 vehicles, Belgium with 257,640 vehicles, Saudi Arabia with 242,442 vehicles, Brazil with 228,235 vehicles, the United Kingdom with 180,778 vehicles, Australia with 162,717 vehicles, the Philippines with 154,848 vehicles, and Turkey with 125,602 vehicles. The top five countries for the increase in Chinese automobile exports from January to November are: Russia with 219,247 vehicles, the United Arab Emirates with 154,192 vehicles, Brazil with 137,497 vehicles, Belgium with 55,747 vehicles, and Mexico with 45,815 vehicles. These top five countries contributed 57% of the increase, with Russia making a significant contribution. Thailand, Australia, and the UK experienced significant declines in their markets from January to November 2024; markets in the UK, Mexico, and Israel performed relatively poorly in November, with Brazil and Russia becoming core markets for the increase. Changes in the main export countries in previous years: - Prior to 2020, automobile exports were mainly to Saudi Arabia, Bangladesh, Egypt, Chile, with significant fluctuations. - In 2022, major automobile export markets were Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Chile, Belgium, Australia, the Philippines, Russia, with many developing countries. - In 2023, major automobile export markets were Russia, Mexico, Belgium, Australia, Saudi Arabia, the UK, with a stronger trend in the European and American markets. Recent developments show improvement in the relatively developed countries of Australia, Belgium, and the UK. - In November 2024, there were changes in the structure of automobile exports, with Russia and Mexico remaining the top two, while the exports to the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia increased. Israel's exports recovered, but Brazil saw a sharp decline. Analysis of the changes in exports to Russia: - In 2022, China exported 160,000 vehicles to Russia. In 2023, Chinese automobile exports to Russia reached 910,000 vehicles, a 459% increase compared to the previous year. - From January to November 2024, China exported 1.06 million vehicles to Russia, a 26% increase compared to the previous year. Since 2023, Russia has become China's largest market for automobile exports, marking a significant shift in China's export dynamics after 15 years. - Recent developments show that Chinese companies quickly met Russia's vehicle supply needs after other countries' automobile companies exited the Russian market in 2023. Chinese automobile companies currently seem safe in the Russian market, but caution is still advised. - The export of new energy vehicles from China to Russia in 2024 experienced significant fluctuations, as Russia adjusts its import rules based on supply and demand. - The export of tractor trucks, heavy trucks, and other products from China experienced a sharp increase followed by a decline in 2024, while the export of passenger cars witnessed an increase in recent months. Trends in the export of new energy vehicles: - Before 2019, the export volume of new energy vehicles was high, but passenger cars were mainly micro low-speed electric vehicles, with a limited number of mainstream new energy vehicle models. - The export structure and quantity of new energy passenger cars have improved. In 2020-2022, new energy exports performed well, with a cumulative export of 1.73 million new energy vehicles in 2023. - In November 2024, the export of new energy vehicles reached 140,000, with a 14% decrease compared to the previous year, and a 32% decrease from the previous month. From January to November 2024, the cumulative export of new energy vehicles reached 1.86 million, a 13% increase compared to the previous year. - The export of new energy passenger cars from January to November 2024 reached 1.81 million vehicles, a 16% increase compared to the previous year, accounting for 98% of the total new energy vehicle exports. There was some recovery in the export of new energy buses and special vehicles, with the export of new energy buses seeing a significant slowdown in growth to 9,000 vehicles, a 14% increase compared to the previous year. Changes in the export regions of new energy vehicles: - With Tesla's entry into China, the export landscape of Chinese automobiles changed, with Shanghai being the top exporter for a long time. However, the entry of the EU temporarily hindered Shanghai's exports, leading to a sharp decline. - In 2024, strong regions for the export of new energy vehicles included Guangdong, Shaanxi, Hebei, Jiangsu, among others. Shaanxi and Anhui showed relatively large increases in exports based on current export increments. Characteristics of the export of new energy passenger cars in previous years: - In 2022, the export of new energy vehicles increased by 90%, with exports mainly targeting Europe and Asia. - In 2023, the export of new energy passenger cars from China reached 1.73 million vehicles, achieving a strong growth rate of 55%. From January to November 2024, the export of new energy vehicles reached 1.86 million vehicles, a 16% increase, with the performance of a decrease of 11% in November relatively poor. Analysis of the changes in the export of new energy vehicles in 2024: - In November 2024, the top 10 countries for the total export of new energy vehicles from Zhongshan Guoxin Energy Corporation were the Philippines with 11,563 vehicles, Belgium with 9,357 vehicles, Thailand with 8,527 vehicles...6 cars, 7807 cars in India, 6311 cars in Bangladesh, 6267 cars in the United Arab Emirates, 5096 cars in the United Kingdom, 4819 cars in Brazil, 4452 cars in Indonesia, 4426 cars in Germany; In mid-November, the top five countries in terms of export growth compared to November 2023 for Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation are: 4847 cars in India, 3244 cars in Indonesia, 2588 cars in the United Arab Emirates, 2248 cars in Tajikistan, and 2152 cars in Germany.Top 10 countries for the total export volume of new energy vehicles from January to November 2024: Belgium 242,297 units, Brazil 149,923 units, UK 112,011 units, Thailand 105,905 units, Philippines 105,701 units, Mexico 76,252 units, India 72,774 units, Australia 68,959 units, UAE 67,238 units, Israel 64,695 units; Top five countries for the export growth of Chinese vehicles from January to November: Brazil 98,118 units, Mexico 61,537 units, Belgium 56,473 units, Indonesia 40,008 units, UAE 35,563 units, with the top 5 countries contributing 112% to the growth, with Brazil making a large contribution. In 2024, the main export destinations for new energy vehicles are Belgium, UK in Europe, and Brazil, Thailand in Southeast Asia. Recently, markets like Israel and Thailand have shown weak export performance. Non-EU European countries and markets like India, Malaysia have shown strong performance. Analysis of the export changes of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles in 2024 Demand for plug-in hybrids in the former Soviet Union region is growing rapidly, while demand for Chinese plug-in models in the EU region has drastically decreased. Demand in Brazil has recently weakened. Russia's conventional fuel car market has made a significant contribution this year, along with the US and Canada markets which show distinct characteristics. Analysis of the export changes of pure electric passenger vehicles in 2024 In 2022, the EU accounted for 46% of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation's car exports, with recent exports to Europe decreasing, while exports to South America have been good and exports to Southeast Asia have been consistently strong. Classification of passenger car export trends 1. Passenger car export by displacement The main displacement range for passenger car exports is from 1 liter to 1.5 liters, which is also the comprehensive advantage of Chinese independent passenger cars. Recently, the export growth of 1.5-2 liter models has been rapid, indicating a higher demand in countries like Russia for China's high-end vehicles. The product differentiation of electric car models has led to significant improvements in the export of high-end electric vehicles, while exports of entry-level plug-in hybrids have shown good growth. 2. Structural characteristics of passenger car exports Strong performance in the export of Chinese conventional fuel passenger cars from January to November 2024 include Russia, UAE, US, Saudi Arabia, etc. The main declining markets in 2024 are Mexico, Australia, Uzbekistan, Ecuador, etc. The main growth in the export of Chinese pure electric passenger cars from January to November 2024 is to Belgium, Brazil, Indonesia, UAE, while declining markets include Thailand, Spain, Netherlands, France, Australia, etc. The main increase in plug-in hybrids in 2024 are in markets like Brazil, Mexico, Central Asia, while markets with a decline in plug-in hybrids include Belgium, France, Japan, etc. Classification of truck export trends 1. Truck exports The export growth of the truck market has not been strong in recent years, with a sustained slight decline in the market share of truck exports. The main demand in the truck market is for gasoline and diesel trucks below 5 tons, while there is also strong demand for diesel heavy trucks over 20 tons. 2. Characteristics of truck export market changes The top markets for truck exports overall remain stable. Russia, Mexico, Vietnam have shown good performance in 2024. Markets like Russia, UK, Australia have seen a decline in truck exports, while markets like Mexico and Saudi Arabia have shown significant recent growth. The top markets for exports of new energy electric trucks in 2024 are stable overall, with large exports to Mexico, South Korea, Thailand, but they are not mainstream products overall. The export market for new energy trucks to Europe has performed poorly, with a continuous decline being observed. Classification of bus export trends 1. Overall bus exports Recently, there has been a slight decrease in global bus demand, leading to a continuous decline in Chinese bus exports in the past two years, from 64,000 units in 2019 to 37,000 units in 2021. Since 2023, global demand has recovered, with Chinese bus exports rebounding to 71,000 units in 2023. From January to November 2024, it reached 74,000 units, showing a 17% growth. The export growth of pure electric buses in 2024 is poor at 9%, with a significant growth in gasoline bus exports, while diesel bus exports have declined. 2. Characteristics of bus export market changes The main markets for Chinese bus exports are relatively dispersed, mainly in underdeveloped countries, making the market complex and difficult to sustain. This year, there has been high demand in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Southeast Asian countries, with strong demand in countries like Saudi Arabia, Peru, Vietnam. The markets with export increases this year are Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Vietnam, while developing countries like Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, South Africa have seen significant declines. The export market for new energy buses is relatively small, with large fluctuations in data. Main markets like Thailand, Chile have shown poor performance this year, while countries like Nepal, Vietnam have strong demand for exported buses. Overseas demand for Chinese electric buses is not very high.