CICC: Commercialization of new silicon carbide kicks off, optimistic about applications in multiple scenarios.

CICC released a research report stating that the silicon-based negative electrode for lithium batteries has undergone four rounds of technological iterations so far. The fourth generation porous carbon deposition silicon technology has made good progress in terms of expansion, cost, fast charging, etc., and has begun commercialization. It is optimistic about its prospects in multiple application scenarios and recommends paying attention to related opportunities in the industrial chain. CICC's main points are as follows: A new generation of silicon carbon is entering commercialization. The new type of silicon carbon is prepared by reacting porous carbon with silane CVD, and its comprehensive performance advantages over the previous three generations of silicon-based negative electrodes mainly include: 1) limiting the silicon particle size within 5nm through porous carbon micropores, solving the problem of silicon expansion and cracking; 2) the initial capacity can reach over 1900mAh/g, with initial efficiency close to 90%, which is much better than previous technological routes; 3) with carbon nanotubes to support 4C fast charging; 4) can currently achieve close to a thousand cycles, meeting the requirements of consumer and power scenarios; 5) expected to help batteries achieve lower BOM costs compared to graphite batteries. Thanks to its good performance, downstream consumers and power batteries are both showing strong interest in it, and some high-end mobile phone models have already begun bulk application, with the maximum capacity expected to increase by 20% without changing the battery volume. Raw materials, processes, and equipment are progressing in synergy, and the new silicon carbon achieves a breakthrough in mass production. Breakthroughs have been made in raw materials, equipment, processes, etc., which are expected to accelerate its application. 1) In the past, silane gas was mostly outsourced at high cost by silicon-carbon factories, but with industry leaders massively expanding silane production and some silicon-carbon factories having their own silane capacity, the cost of silane gas is expected to significantly decrease. 2) Domestic fluidized bed equipment has made an important breakthrough, with leading third-party companies such as Newmat having started mass delivery to downstream, which is expected to solve the problems of scale reduction and consistency of silicon carbon. 3) Currently, there are still certain differences in material selection and preparation processes for porous carbon, but with iterative technology, the yield is expected to increase significantly from less than 30% at present, providing further cost reduction space. It is expected that by 2028, the production cost of new silicon carbon under the self-supply/outsourcing silane mode will decrease to 10.9/13.0 yuan/ton respectively, a reduction of 41%/61% from the current level. By 2028, the market size of new silicon carbon materials is expected to reach around 20 billion yuan. It is optimistic about the gradual scale application of the new silicon carbon in consumer, power three-element, and power iron-lithium fields. With the commercialization of AI smartphones, the demand for battery life improvement is urgent. Silicon carbon can be compatible with battery thinning and capacity enhancement, and is less sensitive to price in consumer scenarios with low cyclic performance requirements. It is expected to be the starting scene for the large-scale application of new silicon carbon, and in the long term, it is expected to be deployed extensively in budget smartphones. Once the scalability and consistency issues of silicon carbon are gradually resolved, it is expected that silicon carbon will also gradually enter large-scale applications in power three-element and iron-lithium scenarios. It is expected that by 2028, the price of silicon carbon will decrease to below 25,000 yuan/ton, and the market size is expected to reach around 81,000 tons/20 billion yuan. Risk: The progress of commercializing the material application falls short of expectations, and the progress of material cost reduction is not as expected.